The McCain MutinyCan his reeling presidential campaign survive today's carnage?
Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2007, at 4:10 PM ET
Listen to this story on NPR's Day to Day.
As a plebe at the Naval Academy, John McCain was a scrappy boxer. His technique, as described in The Nightingale's Song, was to rush into the middle of the ring and start throwing punches until the other guy went down. Today, he applied this approach to his presidential campaign, but this time, he may have knocked himself out.
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StumbleUponMcCain, who has suffered from a plunge in the polls and anemic fund raising, today accepted the resignation of his campaign manager and his top political strategist. His closest longtime aide, Mark Salter, also has an uncertain future with the campaign. And shortly after the news of the top-level carnage was announced, the campaign's deputy campaign manger and political director also resigned. There will likely be even more defections. (Two staffers said "for now," when I asked if they were staying.)
No one staffer (or even a minivan full of them) is crucial to a campaign. Ronald Reagan and John Kerry fired their top strategists and went on to win the nomination. But McCain has already retooled his campaign machine several times, which makes this reshuffle look less like a modification and more like a complete crackup. "The campaign is imploding," said one McCain staffer, echoing a word used by others.
Why the collapse now? Before McCain left for Iraq over the July Fourth weekend, he was angry with his leadership team, accusing them of wasting millions in campaign funds. (One source told me he outright accused his staff of swindling him.) He had been under pressure from donors and advisers to fire campaign manager Terry Nelson for the campaign's dismal fund-raising results and inability to keep costs under control. When McCain returned from Iraq, he met with Nelson and strategist John Weaver Monday morning. After a heated exchange, Nelson offered his resignation. When McCain accepted it, Weaver resigned.
Those who remain are trying to argue that McCain is showing leadership by holding his top brass accountable, but the episode looks more like the last scene in Hamlet—a stack of bodies piled up just before the curtain.
Mark Salter, McCain's longtime chief of staff, co-author of his five books, and speechwriter, followed Weaver—at least in spirit. Though Salter did not formally resign, he might as well have, says one source close to the matter.
Nelson's departure is not all that shocking. He worked for George Bush's re-election campaign in 2004 and was always at odds with Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager in 2000. Davis is now taking over the show. But the exodus of Weaver and Salter is another matter. Since before the 2000 campaign, they have been at the heart of the gritty, tortured McCain operation. They rode on the bus and retreated to McCain's mountain cabin for downtime. Salter is often described as McCain's alter ego. Weaver, nicknamed "Sunny" for his intense, occasionally dark demeanor, has been working on McCain's presidential efforts since the late '90s. He knows the field staff across the country and the contours of the national political landscape. The two men were McCain's loyal sidekicks, throwing chairs and knocking over glasses when McCain started a bar brawl. "It's going to be fun," he told them before 2000, and even when it wasn't, the candidate and staff seemed to feed off each other's energy. They took an almost perverse delight in their boss's unpredictability and their uphill cause. But the happy warrior of 2000 is gone, and with it the swoony notion that McCain was a special, different kind of candidate. "The message is that when the going gets tough, McCain dumps his team," said one McCain adviser.
One can get overly romantic about the McCain team (I know, I've done it). The 2000 race may have been a swashbuckling adventure, but it was undisciplined. And those taking charge of the campaign today argue that it was actually McCain's connection to his top lieutenants that was hurting his campaign this time. Davis will offer the management and discipline that the others lacked.
McCain will have lots of future tough calls to make. In addition to all of the other hard things McCain will have to do in the coming months—defend the Iraq troop surge, watch his youngest boy deploy there, and court conservatives who deeply distrust him—he'll also have to develop a relationship with a new campaign team. He's an undisciplined candidate, which is part of his charm, but there's no evidence that McCain will listen to a new campaign general any more than he did the last one.
The episode will also damage McCain in an unexpected way. It has given ammunition to all those who say McCain lacks a presidential temperament. He has known since the start of the race that other campaigns have been waiting to portray him as a man with an uncontrollable temper. In private talks with supporters, he has promised that he's not going to give his rivals any opening. Now he has. It would be hard enough for any campaign to spin this breakup, but it's inhumanly hard to spin it if you already have a reputation for being a hothead.
As the news was breaking about his campaign, McCain was on the Senate floor, arguing that the troop surge in Iraq was working and that the president should be given more time. Running a presidential campaign is supposed to prepare candidates for the crucible of the job. If McCain can survive this death blow to his campaign and still recover to win the election, then managing Iraq should be a snap for him.
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Remarks from the Fray:
I'm reminded of an interview with him from 2000. It was shortly after the Bush campaign started to overtake his and his defeat was sealed, but before he stopped fighting for the nomination. He was asked why he was running in the face of such long odds. His response was interesting.
Of course, he talked about the things he wanted to accomplish as president. He also said something along the lines of: "I'm getting old, and 2000 might be my last realistic shot at this. I hope that when I outlive my effectiveness in politics, a friend will take me to the old soldiers' home and help me make a graceful exit." I'm paraphrasing from memory, of course, but the comment about the "old soldiers' home" stuck in my head.
He was right. People change as they get older, and he's past his prime. He's not senile by any means, but he seems to fall into the "grumpy old man" category, and I just don't foresee him growing in the office of president. And age will just be more of an issue over the next two terms (2016!).
I miss the John McCain of 2000, who could make a generally pro-gun-rights, anti-abortion, pro-military, anti-flag-burning, small-government Republican appeal to the left, and who could also be serious about fighting corruption and protecting the environment. He had the potential to work with people across the political spectrum and bringing people together on the things they agreed on and showing people how to respect disagreement.
Today's John McCain has pissed off everyone with the possible exception of his military constituency. I still respect him because he's willing to pursue a surefire political loser of a war to the end because he honestly believes that it's the right thing to do, and because of his past efforts to reach out to political rivals and enemies and do the right thing even in the face of opposition from his allies and friends. But I can't imagine him being a good president for eight, or even four, years.
--bearcat98
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If it had to be a Republican in 2009, I would have preferred [McCain] to any of the Republican hopefuls.
The man comports himself as a real person, and is the only politician on Republican side of the divide who seems to remember the days when Important Men didn't regard themselves as above getting dirty in the service of their country. The man didn't just talk about how he thought the Vietnam War was a good idea -- he went and fought in it. And raised a son who did the same in Iraq, when he easily could have kept that son out of that war. Bush 41 acted as McCain did in WWII. We know what happened when his son's turn came up.
I support neither the Vietnam or Iraq wars, but I have respect for those who did and were willing to put their asses on the line alongside the grunts who were drafted and those who volunteered. I have only contempt for those who think wars are something that other people go and fight -- for their benefit -- while the rest of the country parties on.
Men like John McCain -- whatever we may think of their politics -- are heavyweights. They don't strut around their offices muttering "I'm pumped" while other men's sons go to war. Because of this, one affords their other beliefs the gravitas which every serious person's beliefs deserve, even those we end up rejecting.
McCain appears to be sunk, and I don't see how any other Republican can win in 2008. This outcome will please me, but I hope McCain stays around. If only to remind those of his persuasion how men are supposed to comport themselves.
--the_slasher14
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I watched Sen. McCain give a speech on the floor about Iraq yesterday and having followed Sen. Biden who talked to his audience instead of reading his speech, McCain was a letdown, giving a very bland, monotone, boring, unimpressive, canned speech. At the very end he seemed to fight tears as he reflected back to a reference to Vietnam, how that war divided our Nation, and how he hoped Congress could pull together and unite behind an Iraq policy everyone could support. But other than that one small moment, he read from a prepared script and the delivery was very poor as he often stuttered and slurred words without inflection in his voice. There was nothing new or fresh or inspiring in what I thought should have been an impassioned sales pitch of the need to support General Petraeus who has pleaded for more time. In contrast, Sen. Biden was clear, concise, passionate and convincing for those who don't otherwise hold a strong position on Iraq.
Because I believe General Petraeus and our troops are on the verge of turning a corner in Iraq and increasingly gaining ground over the insurgency, I found myself wishing Sen. Biden had delivered McCain's speech instead. It's too important for our own security and the security situation in the region and world to leave Iraq at the mercy of those who invite families to dinner only to discover their own 10-11 year old sons have been stuffed, baked, and served. We need to take them on so our children's children won't have to, or, suffer that same horror.
I like and respect Sen. McCain but we see how important that Ronald Reagan persona is during tough times and the country is thirsty for somebody like that. Unfortunately John McCain is no Ronald Reagan and as much as I respect him he should remain in the Senate where his ability to compromise is a virtue. He mismanaged his campaign so who is he to criticize the President for mismanaging a war? Further, if he can't even manage a campaign we don't need him managing a war.
--swiet
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(7/13)