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The View From the Streets of Gaza CityThings are calmer than they've been for months, but for how long?

By Mitchell ProtheroPosted Thursday, June 21, 2007, at 3:21 PM ET

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In February, Mitchell Prothero wrote about security problems in Gaza. After Hamas won control of the Palestinian legislature last year, Scott MacMillan wondered if the party would turn more moderate when faced with the responsibilities of governance. But Shmuel Rosner argued that a Hamas-controlled government made the formation of a Palestinian state through a peace process almost impossible. Emily Yoffe provided background on Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Fatah.

Islamic Jihad, perhaps the best-organized and best-armed Palestinian militant group, doesn't fight other Palestinians as a rule. But it also eschews cease-fires against Israel, no matter who asks. Islamic Jihad stayed out of last week's conflict with Fatah security forces, but when the smoke cleared, and the victor was a militant anti-Israeli group, the IJ fighters were ecstatic and expected to get right back to the business of firing the homemade rockets that infuriate the Israelis.

But in the early part of the week, Islamic Jihad was stunned. As their teams set up rocket operations, Hamas gunmen came along and stopped them. Fatah never did that. Two such incidents were seconds away from turning into shootouts, according to Islamic Jihad fighters I talked to. In one case, IJ managed to get a rocket off before Hamas prevented them from shooting more. The Israeli military immediately responded with a limited airstrike on the area.

One "former" Fatah fighter told me that if Hamas and Islamic Jihad end up coming to blows, the situation would be far worse than the conflict between Hamas and Fatah.

"Islamic Jihad is much tougher (than Fatah)," he said. "A fight will not end fast. Islamic Jihad guys do not run like Fatah, and their leaders don't either. Lots of men have left Fatah and Hamas to join them because they don't want to fight anyone but the Jews. There are a lot more of them now than before."

On early Tuesday morning, the situation deteriorated in the southern area of Gaza near the Khan Younis refugee camp. At least three Israeli tanks and several bulldozers entered Gaza in what the IDF calls a "limited security incursion." Hamas might not have wanted a direct confrontation with Israel this week, but that couldn't go unanswered. So, teams of Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and other aligned militant groups attacked. By some reports, they lost seven men, wounding a single Israeli soldier.

At the funeral for the Hamas men later that day, the furious mourners called for revenge. Seven militants is a lot to lose, and it means that a lot of families—key to Hamas' political support—are calling for immediate action. Local politics might motivate Hamas to keep things calm, but the organization's full name means "the Islamic Resistance Movement." They didn't get that moniker because they're fond of negotiating. Unless they can start paying salaries to all their men, a challenge with sanctions in effect, resistance is probably all they can offer.

Overnight, five or so rockets fell into Israel, wounding two Israeli civilians. In all likelihood, the IDF will respond soon, which will force another response from Hamas or IJ.

And if this comes, all the nice young men in beards and bright safety vests offering civil protection won't make up for an escalation that further punishes the strip. And now there is no moderate Fatah organization to try to put the brakes on a situation that threatens to spiral out of hand, because the Israelis never talk to Hamas. The stage is being set, and it's not clear if anyone on either side could stop the progression of violence, even if they wished to.

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Mitchell Prothero is a writer and photographer based in Beirut. He covers conflict and terrorism issues throughout the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe.

Photographs by Mitchell Prothero.

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