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So Much for Plan BThe Iraq Study Group chickens out.

By Fred Kaplan
Posted Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2006, at 6:12 PM ET

(Continued from page 2)

Will Bush drop his avowed desire for "regime change" in Tehran in exchange for Tehran's help in stabilizing Iraq? That's the big question. Every time it's come up so far, Bush has firmly said no. Will he make a fundamental shift now? Doubtful. And what is Tehran's view of a stable Iraq? Is it the same as Washington's view? Again, doubtful—which is one reason Bush probably won't make a shift. Maybe some compromise can be worked out, but what conditions will be set for starting, much less completing, negotiations?

The authors recommend the creation of an Iraq International Support Group, consisting of all the Gulf states, Iraq's neighbors, Egypt, the European Union, and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. This might be a good idea, but the report musters no reasons why these countries should cooperate. The report calls on the United States to "energize countries to support national political reconciliation." It's unclear what this means.

The report is at its best, and most devastating, when it details the "grave and deteriorating" situation in Iraq. "Current U.S. policy is not working," it states bluntly. Forty percent of Iraq's population lives in "highly insecure" provinces. Iraq's military lacks leadership, personnel, equipment, and logistical support; Iraq's police force is worse still. (The army provided just two of the six battalions it promised to send to Baghdad; the police refuse to go into Sadr City.) Donor nations promised to send $13.5 billion in aid but have sent less than $4 billion. The United States is cutting its Iraqi reconstruction budget to $750 million a year, when the authors say it should be boosting this budget to $5 billion a year. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad employs 1,000 people, but just 33 of them speak Arabic and only six do so fluently.

It's a mess. Not even Jim Baker really knows what to do about it.

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Fred Kaplan is Slate's "War Stories" columnist and the author of Daydream Believers: How a Few Grand Ideas Wrecked American Power. He can be reached at .
Photograph of James Baker and Lee Hamilton by Alex Wong/Getty Images.
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