HOME / election scorecard: Where the elections stand today.

Election ScorecardWhere the midterm elections stand today.

By Mark Blumenthal and Charles FranklinUpdated Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2006, at 6:25 PM ET

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House Race Summary for Oct. 17:

Since our last summary, we have changed from talking about the generic ballot to a more precise look at what's happening in contested races. Below is a list of the 63 hottest House races. Click on an individual race to jump to the most recent polling, or scroll down the page to see how all the competitive races have been shaping up. (Click here for an archive of House Race Summaries based on our previous generic House ballot.)

One of the challenges of using polling data from individual races is that public polls are plentiful in a small handful of competitive districts and rare in most others. For example, the majority of the most closely watched races have been polled only two or three times since late August. So, we have nowhere near as much data for House races as we do for closely contested Senate and governor races.

We do see some clear leaders. Keeping in mind that Democrats need to gain 16 seats to win control of the House, we looked closely at the most hotly contested seats currently held by Republicans. We looked only at nonpartisan surveys conducted since late August. In districts that have been polled at least twice, we see Democrats leading beyond the margin of error in nine districts: Arizona-8, Colorado-7, Indiana-2, Indiana-8, Indiana-9, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-1, New York-26, and Pennsylvania-10.

Democrats also hold significant leads in three more districts that have been polled only once by nonpartisans since the summer: Florida-16, New York-24, and Ohio-15.

That would make a total pickup of 13 seats, but Democratic gains could be much greater if present trends continue. At least a dozen hotly contested seats currently held by Republicans look too close to call based on the available data, and no Republican leads by a significant margin in any district currently held by a Democrat.

Arizona 1

Arizona 5
Arizona 8
California 4
California 11
California 50

Colorado 3
Colorado 4
Colorado 5
Colorado 7
Connecticut 2
Connecticut 4
Connecticut 5

Florida 9
Florida 13
Florida 16
Florida 22
Georgia 8
Idaho 1
Illinois 6
Illinois 8
Illinois 10
Illinois 14
Illinois 19

Indiana 2

Indiana 7
Indiana 8
Indiana 9
Iowa 1
Iowa 2
Iowa 3
Kentucky 3
Kentucky 4

Minnesota 2
Minnesota 6

Nevada 2
Nevada 3
New Hampshire 1
New Hampshire 2
New Jersey 7
New Mexico 1
New York 3
New York 19
New York 20
New York 24
New York 25
New York 26
New York 29

North Carolina 8
North Carolina 11
Ohio 1
Ohio 2
Ohio 6
Ohio 15
Ohio 18
Oklahoma 5

Pennsylvania 4
Pennsylvania 6
Pennsylvania 7
Pennsylvania 8
Pennsylvania 10

South Carolina 5
Texas 17
Texas 22
Vermont At-Large

Utah 2

Utah 3
Virginia 2
Virginia 5
Virginia 10
Washington 8
West Virginia 1
Wisconsin 8

Wyoming At-Large

Data provided by Pollster.com

Congressional District: Arizona 1
Incumbent: Rick Renzi-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ellen Simon (D)	Rick Renzi (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	983 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	50	46
Northern Arizona U	403 LV	5	9/15-17/06	32	45

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Harry Mitchell (D)	J.D. Hayworth (R)*
SurveyUSA	509 LV	4.4	10/13-15/06	45	48
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.9	(9/28/06)	38	52
SurveyUSA	590 LV	4.1	9/15-17/06	40	52
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.0	6/6-10/06	34	49

Congressional District: Arizona 8
Open Race—R (Jim Kolbe)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Gabrielle Giffords (D)	Randy Graf (R)
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	45	37
Wick Communications	402 RV	4.3	9/20-23/06	52	34
Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/19-21/06	54	29
Arizona Daily Star	600 LV	4	9/16-19/06	48.4	35.7

Congressional District: California 4
Incumbent: John Doolittle-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Charles Brown (D)	John Doolittle (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	44	52
Benenson Strategy Group (D)	400 LV	4.9	8/29-31/06	39	41

Congressional District: California 11
Incumbent: Richard Pombo-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jerry McNerny (D)	Richard Pompo (R)*
Lake Research Partners (D)	400LV	4.4	9/28-30/06	40	41
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	413LV	4.9	9/24-26/06	48	46
Lake Research Partners (D)	500LV	4.4	7/9-11/06	33	43

Congressional District: California 50
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Francine Busby (D)	Brian Bilbray (R)*
SurveyUSA	581 LV	4.1	10/13-15/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	540 LV	4.3	9/10-12/06	40	54
SurveyUSA	566 LV	4.2	7/9-11/06	40	51

Congressional District: Colorado 3
Incumbent: John Salazar-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Salazar (D)*	Scott Tipton (R)
Anzalone-Liszt Research (D)	500 LV	4.3	10/15-17/06	60	32
SurveyUSA	474 LV	4.6	9/15-17/06	52	41
SurveyUSA	456 LV	4.7	8/12-14/06	53	42
Anzalone-Liszt Research (D)	575 LV	4	7/9-16/06	56	26

Congressional District: Colorado 4
Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Angie Paccione (D)	Marilyn Musgrave (R)*
SurveyUSA	509 LV	4.4	10/15-17/06	38	48
Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5	10/3-7/06	36	46
Conquest Communications (R)	400 LV	5	9/26-27/06	36	43
Strategic Services (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/24-26/06	42	42
SurveyUSA	424LV	4.9	9/18-20/06	42	46
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	996 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	41	47
SurveyUSA	452 LV	4.7	8/13-15/06	42	46
Strategic Services (D)	600 LV	4	5/31-6/5/06	46	47

Congressional District: Colorado 5
Open Race—R (Joel Hefley)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jay Fawcett (D)	Doug Lamborn (R)
SurveyUSA	543 LV	4.3	10/16-18/06	38	51
Basswood Research (R)	300 LV	5.66	10/10/06	32	49
Mason-Dixon	400LV	5	10/3-7/06	37	37

Congressional District: Colorado 7
Open Race—R (Bob Beauprez)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ed Perlmutter (D)	Rick O'Donnell (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	991 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	47	47
Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5	10/3-7/06	45	39
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	45	34
SurveyUSA	482 LV	4.5	9/21-25/06	54	37
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1014 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	48	46
SurveyUSA	535 LV	4.3	8/18-20/06	45	45

Congressional District: Connecticut 2
Incumbent: Rob Simmons-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Courtney (D)	Rob Simmons (R)*
University of Connecticut	774 LV	3.5	10/12-18/06	44	46
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	41	44
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	5	9/24-25/06	36	50
Grove Insight (D)	400 LV	5	8/28-30/06	41	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1010 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	51	45

Congressional District: Connecticut 4
Incumbent: Christopher Shays-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Diane Farrell (D)	Christopher Shays (R)*
Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal	400 RV	4.9	10/10-12/06	44	41
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	46	46
University of Connecticut	753 RV	3	9/25-10/1/06	41	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1011 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	42	42

Congressional District: Connecticut 5
Incumbent: Nancy Johnson-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Chris Murphy (D)	Nancy Johnson (R)*
Grove Insight	400 RV	5	10/12/06	45	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	996 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	46	52
American Viewpoint (R)	400 LV	4.9	10/1-2/06	42	52
Westhill Consulting (D)	500 RV	4.4	9/25-27/06	42	42
American Viewpoint (R)	400 LV	4.9	9/5-6/06	36	50
Democracy Corps (D)	650 LV	4	8/13-15/06	44	49
Central Marketing (D)	600 LV	4	6/11-13/06	38	35

Congressional District: Florida 9
Open-R (Mike Bilirakis)

Pollster/Source NPop MoE Dates Phyllis Busansky (D)
Gus Bilirakis (R)
SurveyUSA
425 LV
4.5
10/16-18/06
36 57
SurveyUSA
491 LV
4.4
9/21-25/06
32 61

Congressional District: Florida 13
Open Race—R (Katherine Harris)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Christine Jennings (D)	Vern Buchanan (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1024 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	47	44
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	400 RV	4.9	10/3-4/06	50	38
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	500 RV	4.4	9/8-12/06	46	38

Congressional District: Florida 16
Open Race—R (Mark Foley**)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tim Mahoney (D)	Mark Foley (R)**
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1001 LV	3.09	10/1/06	50	43
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/14/06	48	35
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	400 LV	4.4	6/5/06	33	59

**Mark Foley's name will appear on the ballot despite his resignation from Congress. Votes cast for Foley will count toward Joe Negron.

Congressional District: Florida 22
Incumbent: Clay Shaw-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ron Klein (D)	Clay Shaw (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1022 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	44	52

Congressional District: Georgia 8
Incumbent: Jim Marshall-D

Polling data that tests a contest between incumbent Jim Marshall (D) and Mac Collins (R) is currently unavailable.

Congressional District: Idaho 1
Open Race—R (Butch Otter)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Larry Grant (D)	Bill Sali (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	998 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	43	49

Congressional District: Illinois 6
Open Race—R (Henry Hyde)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tammy Duckworth (D)	Peter Roskam (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	47	47
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	409 RV	5	10/8-9/06	51	46
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	43	38
Goodwin Simon (D)	400 LV	5	9/18-20/06	41	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1069 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	47	46
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D)	400 RV	5	5/9-11/06	42	42

Congressional District: Illinois 8
Incumbent: Melissa Bean-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Melissa Bean (D)*	David McSweeney (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.10	10/15-16/06	47	44
Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal (D)	600 LV	4	10/11-12/06	49	33
DCCC (D)	400 LV	5	9/13/06	47	28
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1006 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	48	45

Congressional District: Illinois 10
Incumbent: Mark Kirk-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Dan Seals (D)	Mark Kirk (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1004 LV	3.09	10/15-16/06	44	46
Mellman Group (D)	400 LV	4.9	10/10-11/06	32	49
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	300 LV	5.66	10/8-9/06	32	57

Congressional District: Illinois 14
Incumbent: Dennis Hastert-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Laesch (D)	Dennis Hastert (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1003 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	42	52

Congressional District: Illinois 19
Incumbent: John Shimkus-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Dan Stover (D)	John Shimkus (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1023 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	36	53

Congressional District: Indiana 2
Incumbent: Chris Chocola-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Joe Donnelly (D)	Chris Chocola (R)*
Research 2000	400 LV	5	10/16-17/06	50	45
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	989 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	50	46
Mercury Public Affairs (R)	300 LV	5.65	10/9/06	44.7	44.0
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	400 LV	4.6	10/4-5/06	52	36
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	49	39
Mercury Public Affairs (R)	300 LV	--	9/17/06	41	46
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/15-17/06	50	42
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1003 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	52	40
Research 2000	400 LV	5	7/21-23/06	46	41
Cooper & Secrest (D)	504 LV	4.4	7/10-13/06	48	38

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Julia Carson (D)*	Eric Dickerson (R)
Selzer & Co	468 LV	4	10/16-18/06	42	45
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/5-8/06	55	35

Congressional District: Indiana 8
Incumbent: John Hostettler-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Brad Ellsworth (D)	John Hostettler (R)*
Indiana State University	626 LV	3.9	10/5-12/06	54.5	32.1
Indiana State University	603 RV	4	9/6-21/06	47	32
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1031 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	51	45
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/5-8/06	44	40

Congressional District: Indiana 9
Incumbent: Mike Sodrel-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Baron Hill (D)	Mike Sodrel (R)*
SurveyUSA	512 LV	4.4	10/6-8/06	48	46
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	46	38
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1017 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	53	42
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/5-8/06	46	40

Congressional District: Iowa 1
Open Race—R (Jim Nussle)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Bruce Braley (D)	Mike Whalen (R)
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D)	400 RV	4.9	10/5-8/06	48	37
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	34	47
Selzer & Co	439 LV	4.7	9/10-13/06	44	37
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1014 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	54	41

Congressional District: Iowa 2
Incumbent: Jim Leach-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	David Loebsack (D)	Jim Leach (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1006 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	48	47

Congressional District: Iowa 3
Incumbent: Leonard Boswell-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Leonard Boswell (D)	Jeff Lamberti (R)*
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/11-12/06	52	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	989 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	54	43

Congressional District: Kentucky 3
Incumbent: Anne Northup-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Yarmuth (D)	Anne Northup (R)
SurveyUSA	536 LV	4.3	10/16-18/06	48	47
Cooper & Secrest (D)	564 LV	4.12	10/11-15/06	44	45
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	996 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	48	48
SurveyUSA	529 LV	4.3	9/26-28/06	44	50
Cooper & Secrest (D)	563 LV	4.1	6/20-22/06	46	47

Congressional District: Kentucky 4
Incumbent: Geoff Davis-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ken Lucas (D)	Geoff Davis (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1000 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	459 LV	4.7	10/7-9/06	44	47
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	36	42
SurveyUSA	427 LV	4.8	9/16-18/06	48	44
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	963 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	656 LV	3.9	8/7-9/06	44	46
SurveyUSA	447 LV	4.7	7/22-24/06	50	41

Congressional District: Minnesota 1
Incumbent: Gil Gutknecht-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tim Walz (D)	Gil Gutknecht (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1024 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	47	48

Congressional District: Minnesota 2
Incumbent: John Kline-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Coleen Rowley (DFL)	John Kline (R)*
SurveyUSA	519 LV	4.4	10/13-15/06	42	50
SurveyUSA	520 LV	4.4	9/24-26/06	35	55

Congressional District: Minnesota 6
Incumbent: Mark Kennedy-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Patty Wetterling (DFL)	Michelle Bachman (R)
Minneapolis Star Tribune	506 LV	4.5	10/6-12/06	48	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	995 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	50	45
SurveyUSA	669 LV	3.9	10/6-8/06	44	47
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	43	46
SurveyUSA	641 LV	3.9	9/15-17/06	41	50

Congressional District: Nevada 2
Open-R (Jim Gibbons)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jill Derby (D)	Dean Heller (R)
Mason-Dixon	400 RV	5	9/19-21/06	42	45
Research 2000	600 LV	4	9/5-7/06	37	45

Congressional District: Nevada 3
Incumbent: Jon Porter-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tessa Hafen (D)	Jon Porter (R)*
Momentum Analysis (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/26-27/06	37	41
Mason-Dixon	400 RV	5	9/19-21/06	37	47
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1018 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	43	51

Congressional District: New Hampshire 1
Incumbent: Jeb Bradley-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Carol Shea-Porter (D)	Jeb Bradley (R)*
Research 2000	300 LV	6	9/13-14/06	31	56
University of New Hampshire	261 LV	6.1	7/21-31/06	24	58

Congressional District: New Hampshire 2
Incumbent: Charlie Bass-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Paul Hodes (D)	Charlie Bass (R)*
University of New Hampshire	220 LV	6.2	9/15-24/06	36	46
Research 2000	300 LV	6	9/13-14/06	30	55
Anzalone Liszt Research (D)	602 LV	4	8/14-20/06	42	43
University of New Hampshire	249 LV	6.2	7/21-31/06	25	53

Congressional District: New Jersey 7
Incumbent: Mike Ferguson-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Linda Stender (D)	Mike Ferguson (R)*
Tarrance Group (R)	300 LV	5.8	10/10-11/06	33	48
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1022 LV	3.10	10/8-10/06	46	48

Congressional District: New Mexico 1
Incumbent: Heather Wilson-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Patricia Madrid (D)	Heather Wilson (R)*
Survey USA	470 LV	4.6	10/13-15/06	53	45
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	986 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	52	44
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	50	40
Research & Polling	400 LV	5	9/25-28/06	44	44
SurveyUSA	503 LV	4.5	9/18-20/06	46	51
Research & Polling	410 RV	4.8	8/25-31/06	42	45
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1010 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	45	48
Lake Research Partners (D)	400 LV	4.9	8/17-20/06	44	46

Congressional District: New York 3
Incumbent: Peter King-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Dave Mejias (D)	Peter King (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	984 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	46	48

Congressional District: New York 19
Incumbent: Sue Kelly-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Hall (D)	Sue Kelly (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1014 LV	3.07	10/15-16/06	49	40
Abacus Associates (D)	600 RV	4	9/15/06	44	49

Congressional District: New York 20
Incumbent: John Sweeney-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	John Sweeney (R)*
Global Strategy Group (D)	404 LV	4.9	10/16-18/06	44	42
Siena College	630 LV	3.9	10/16-17/06	39	53
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1001 LV	3.09	10/15-16/06	54	41
Global Insight	400 RV	4.9	10/13/06	41	42
Global Strategy Group	410 LV	3.9	8/29-31/06	39	47
Sienna College	628 LV	3.9	8/21-23/06	34	53

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Mike Arcuri (D)	Ray Meier (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1029 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	53	42
Benenson Strategy Group (D)	500 LV	4.4	7/26-30/06	40	36

Congressional District: New York 25
Incumbent: James T. Walsh-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Dan Maffei (D)	James T. Walsh (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	994 LV	3.10	10/15-16/06	51	43

Congressional District: New York 26
Incumbent: Tom Reynolds-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jack Davis (D)	Tom Reynolds (R)*
SurveyUSA	419 LV	4.9	10/16-18/06	46	49
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1056 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	56	40
Zogby	402 LV	5	10/4-5/06	48	33
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)	522 LV	4.4	10/3-4/06	50	42
SurveyUSA	482 LV	4.6	10/2-4/06	50	45
SurveyUSA	491 LV	4.5	9/25-27/06	43	45

Congressional District: New York 29
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Eric Massa (D)	Randy Kuhl (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1016 LV	3.07	10/15-16/06	52	40
Cooper & Secrest (D)	503 LV	4.4	9/19-21/06	39	43

Congressional District: North Carolina 8
Incumbent: Robin Hayes-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Larry Kissell (D)	Robin Hayes (R)*
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.9	10/16-17/06	33	49
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1029 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	51	44

Congressional District: North Carolina 11
Incumbent: Charles Taylor-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Heath Shuler (D)	Charles Taylor (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	979 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	51	43
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	51	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1021 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	50	47
OnPoint Polling and Research (D)	731 LV	3.6	8/8-13/06	48	43
Public Policy Polling	675 LV	3.7	7/10/06	51	45
Anzalone Liszt Research (D)	400 LV	5	5/4-8/06	45	43

Congressional District: Ohio 1
Incumbent: Steve Chabot-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Cranley (D)	Steve Chabot (R)*
Anzalone-Liszt Research (D)	500 LV	4.4	7/17-8/1/06	45	45

Congressional District: Ohio 2
Incumbent: Jean Schmidt-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Victoria Wulsin (D)	Jean Schmidt (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1003 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	48	45
SurveyUSA	497 LV	4.5	9/17-19/06	42	45

Congressional District: Ohio 6
Open Race—D (Ted Strickland)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Charlie Wilson (D)	Chuck Blasdel (R)
SurveyUSA	570 LV	4	10/16-18/06	64	32
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	982 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	56	40
SurveyUSA	516 LV	4.4	9/26-28/06	54	41

Congressional District: Ohio 15
Incumbent: Deborah Pryce-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Mary Jo Kilroy (D)	Deborah Pryce (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1015 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	53	41
Research 2000	220LV	6.2	9/15-26/06	33	46
Anzalone Liszt Research	220LV	6.2	9/15-26/06	37	42

Congressional District: Ohio 18
Open Race—R (Bob Ney)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Zack Space (D)	Joy Padgett (R)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	400 RV	5	10/10-11/06	48	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	987 LV	3.10	10/8-10/06	51	42
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	45	36

Congressional District: Oklahoma 5
Open Race—R (Ernest Istook)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	David Hunter (D)	Mary Fallin (R)
SurveyUSA	435 LV	4.7	10/8-10/06	33	62

Congressional District: Pennsylvania 4
Incumbent: Melissa Hart-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jason Altmire (D)	Melissa Hart (R)*
Anzalone Liszt Research (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/17-20/06	44	48
Anzalone Liszt Research (D)	500 LV	4.3	6/4-8/06	39	53

Congressional District: Pennsylvania 6
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Lois Murphy (D)	Jim Gerlach (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1023 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	52	46
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	43	41
Keystone Research	349 LV	5.2	9/20-25/06	41	44
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.9	9/13-14/06	36	47
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1020 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	50	45
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)	601 LV	4.1	7/27-29/06	42	41

Congressional District: Pennsylvania 7
Incumbent: Curt Weldon-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Joe Sestak (D)	Curt Weldon (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1017 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	52	44
Franklin & Marshall College	363 LV	5.2	9/22-9/27/06	45	44
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.9	9/12-13/06	33	52
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	607 LV	--	5/10-16/06	41	51

Congressional District: Pennsylvania 8
Incumbent: Mike Fitzpatrick-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Patrick Murphy (D)	Mike Fitzpatrick (R)*
Grove Insight	400 RV	4.9	10/15/06	44	40
Global Strategy Group (D)	403 LV	4.9	7/10-12/06	38	44
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1006 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	45	53

Congressional District: Pennsylvania 10
Incumbent: Don Sherwood-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Chris Carney (D)	Don Sherwood (R)*
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D)	400 RV	4.9	10/8-9/06	51	37
Lycoming College	804 LV	3.5	9/24-28/06	46.7	38.2
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1008 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	50	43

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Spratt (D)*	Ralph Norman (R)
SurveyUSA	408 LV	4.9	10/9-11/06	56	42

Congressional District: Texas 17
Incumbent: Chet Edwards-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Chet Edwards (D)*	Van Taylor (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1008 LV	3.10	10/8-10/06	55	38
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D)	400 LV	4.9	10/9-10/06	54	33

Congressional District: Texas 22
Open Race—R (Tom Delay**)

Polling data that tests a contest between incumbent Tom Delay (R)** and Nick Lampson (D) is currently unavailable.

**Tom Delay's name will appear on the ballot despite his resignation from Congress. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate who has been endorsed by the Republican Party.

Congressional District: Utah 2
Incumbent: Jim Matheson-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jim Matheson (D)*	LaVar Christensen (R)
Dan Jones & Associates	300 RV	5.5	7/14-20/06	64	23
Dan Jones & Associates	332 RV	5.4	9/25-28/06	60	24

Congressional District: Utah 3
Incumbent: Chris Cannon-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Christian Burridge (D)	Chris Cannon (R)*
Dan Jones & Associates	300 RV	5.5	7/14-20/06	24	56
Dan Jones & Associates	301 RV	5.7	9/25-28/06	26	53

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Peter Welch (D)	Martha Rainville (R)*
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	401 RV	5	10/8-9/06	52	41
American Research Group	600 LV	4	9/13-14/06	48	45
American Research Group	600 LV	4	7/26-27/06	41	42

Congressional District: Virginia 2
Incumbent: Thelma Drake-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Phil Kellam (D)	Thelma Drake (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	982 LV	3.10	10/8-10/06	46	48
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	46	42
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1021 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	51	43
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	300 LV	5.6	8/28-29/06	41.3	48.3

Congressional District: Virginia 5
Incumbent: Virgil Goode-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Al Weed (D)	Virgil Goode (R)*
SurveyUSA	502 LV	4.4	10/8-10/06	40	56

Congressional District: Virginia 10
Incumbent: Frank Wolf-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Judy Feder (D)	Frank Wolf (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1004 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	42	457

Congressional District: Washington 8
Incumbent: Dave Reichert-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Darcy Burner (D)	Dave Reichert (R)*
SurveyUSA	445 LV	4.7	10/15-17/06	47	50
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1015 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	45	48
SurveyUSA	536 LV	4.3	9/24-26/06	48	50
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1051 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	49	46
SurveyUSA	609 RV	4	8/22-23/06	41	54

Congressional District: West Virginia 1
Incumbent: Alan Mollohan-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Alan Mollohan (D)*	Chris Wakim (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1003 LV	3.09	8/27-29/06	52	42

Congressional District: Wisconsin 8
Open Race—R (Mark Green)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Steve Kagen (D)	John Gard (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	983 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	48	46

Congressional District: Wyoming At-Large
Incumbent: Barbara Cubin-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Gary Trauner (D)	Barbara Cubin (R)*
Mason-Dixon	625 RV	4	10/9-12/06	37	44

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Mark Blumenthal is a Democratic pollster and the editor and publisher of Pollster.com, the new home of his blog MysteryPollster. Charles Franklin is a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, author of the blog Political Arithmetik, and a co-developer and contributor to Pollster.com. For comments and questions, please write to .

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