Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser
	276 Electoral Votes 168 solid, 66 likely, 42 iffy		262 Electoral Votes 149 solid, 85 likely, 28 iffy

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Analysis Oct. 25, 12:45 p.m. ET: New Mexico moves to Bush, bumping him up to 276. Now he has several winning combinations, none of which require Ohio. He can lose Iowa and still take the election to the House on a tie. He's more likely to lose Wisconsin than Iowa, but in that case, New Mexico plus New Hampshire or (can you believe this?) Hawaii gets him to 270. What Bush can't afford is a Colorado-New Mexico swap. Given the current map, we still think Wisconsin will decide the election. But there are many more variables in play today than a week ago.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slate awards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.

The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

Tightest States
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
FL (27)	49	46	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Bush iffy. The Reuters/Zogby conventional poll confirms a Bush lead after two other surveys showed a tie or a slight edge to Kerry. The unconventional polls are split, with Bush up 1 in the Zogby online survey and Kerry up 1 in SurveyUSA. The party breakdown in Mason-Dixon's poll, which has Bush up 3, matches the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in statewide voter registration. (Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)
	46	46	1	3.5	10/19-21	Miami Herald
	47	48	3.5	3.5	10/18-21	Research 2000
	48	47	1	3.5	10/15-19	Quinnipiac
	50.1	48.9	0.3	2.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	50	N/A	4	10/15-17	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	45	N/A	4	10/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	44	45	2	4	10/10-15	U of North Florida
	49	45	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	49	46	1	4	10/8-14	Rasmussen (A)
	48	48	1	4	10/4-10	Washington Post
	48	44	3	4	10/4-5	Mason-Dixon
	51	44	N/A	3.7	10/1-5	Quinnipiac
	47	49	N/A	4	10/2-5	ARG
	49.1	49.5	0.5	2.2	9/30-5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	46	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)
IA (7)	47	45	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Bush likely. Reuters/Zogby backs up the general pattern of a 2-point Bush lead, contradicting Zogby's onlie poll and the only other outlier. We think Bush's 6-point lead in Mason-Dixon is exaggerated, since the poll's party breakdown is 2 to 3 points to the right of both statewide registration and the 2000 VNS exit poll. But the balance of evidence clearly suggests Bush is ahead. (Read Slate's dispatch from Iowa.)
	51	45	1	3.8	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)
	45	46	1	4	10/14-19	Central Surveys
	47.9	51.1	0.4	4.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	43	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	47	2	4	10/10-12	American Research Group
	49	46	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	45	1	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	46	50	N/A	5.0	9/27-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	48	47	N/A	3.9	10/4-6	SurveyUSA (A)
	44.5	51.1	0.2	4.1	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
ME (4)	39	50	1	5	10/21-22	Reuters/Zogby	Kerry likely. 50-39 is clearly enough to nail down the more conservative second CD and give him all 4 electoral votes. (Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.)
	45	51	N/A	3.9	10/17-19	SurveyUSA (A)
	47	49	N/A	3.9	10/3-5	SurveyUSA (A)
	39	42	4	5	9/23-27	Strategic Mktg Svs.
	47	46	N/A	4	9/20-22	SurveyUSA (A)
	42	45	3	4	9/10-23	Critical Insights
	44	48	4	4	9/8-10	ARG
MN (10)	45	46	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Kerry likely. It's close, but he has led in nearly every conventional poll since mid-September, including one by a Republican firm a week ago. The sole exception is Mason-Dixon, which hasn't published its party breakdown here but used breakdowns in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan that were all more Republican than the 2004 exit polls in those states. (Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.)
	48	46	N/A	4.5	10/17-23	Rasmussen (A)
	47	45	2	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	47	N/A	4.5	10/11-17	Rasmussen (A)
	45	47	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	2	3.4	10/9-11	Star-Tribune
	43	45	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	43	50	1	3	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)
NV (5)	48	44	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Bush likely Just when we were wondering whether to take this state off the battlegrounds table, along comes Research 2000 with the first conventional October survey suggesting a close race. But Zogby's conventional poll backs up Mason-Dixon, and Bush is the one gaining in SurveyUSA and the Zogby online poll. The average of all surveys leans clearly to Bush. (Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.)
	49	47	N/A	4.1	10/19-21	Research 2000
	45	41	1	4.1	10/16-19	Las Vegas Sun
	52	45	N/A	4	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)
	52	42	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	50	46	N/A	4	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	44	2	4	9/20-28	BR&S/Las Vegas Sun
	47	45	N/A	5	9/23	Rasmussen (A)
	52	43	1	5	9/18-21	Gallup
NH (4)	47	46	1	4	10/16-19	ARG	Kerry iffy. We checked Mason-Dixon's party breakdown to see whether it matches the 2000 exit poll. It does. ARG has Bush up 1. Zogby has Kerry up 5, but that's online. Rasmussen has Kerry up 2, but that's automated. Research 2000 has Kerry up 4, but that's a week old. That leaves Suffolk as the only conventional poll to show a Kerry lead in the last week. The average of October polls still tilts to Kerry, but one more conventional survey on Bush's side will probably move this state to his column.
	47	49	N/A	4.5	10/18	Rasmussen (A)
	48	45	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	41	46	1	4.9	10/14-17	Suffolk Univ.
	46.0	51.1	1.1	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	45	49	2	4	10/12-14	Research 2000
	47	47	1	4	10/3-5	ARG
	43.9	50.5	1.7	4.1	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	42	49	1	4	10/3-4	Franklin Pierce
	50	45	1	4.3	9/27-10/3	UNH Granite Poll
NM (5)	49	44	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Bush iffy. On Friday we said Kerry needed fresh confirmation of his lead, or this state would slip away from him. What we got instead is another poll showing Bush ahead. Gallup plus Mason-Dixon plus Reuters/Zogby is better evidence than ARG plus an online survey plus the three-week-old Alburquerque Journal poll. We suspect Mason-Dixon is on the money here, because its party breakdown is to the right of statewide registration but to the left of the 2000 exit poll. (Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)
	46	48	1	4	10/16-18	ARG
	49	45	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	44.1	53.6	1.0	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	50	47	2	4	10/12-14	CNN/USA/Gallup
	42.5	53.9	1.7	4.2	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	43	46	2	3	10/1-4	Albuquerque Journal
	45	49	1	4	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)
OH (20)	47	42	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Kerry iffy. Every time we think this state is turning into another Pennsylvania with a small but steady lead for Kerry, along comes a Fox or a Mason-Dixon or a Zogby to confound that trend. Mason-Dixon's party breakdown was 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll, and Fox is Fox, but the evidence for Kerry is unarguably weaker today than a week ago. He'd better watch out. (Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)
	46	50	N/A	5.3	10/17-21	Scripps
	47	48	1	3.5	10/17-20	CNN/USA/Gallup
	49	44	N/A	3.5	10/17-18	FOX News
	46	45	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	49	N/A	3.8	10/16-17	Survey USA (A)
	47	50	N/A	3.5	10/14-17	ABC News
	47	47	N/A	4	10/12-18	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	N/A	3.6	10/11-17	Ohio Poll
	49	47	N/A	4	10/7-13	Rasmussen (A)
	51	43	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	49	N/A	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	47	48	1	4	10/4-6	ARG
	48	49	N/A	3.6	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
PA (21)	45	47	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Kerry likely. Reuters/Zogby is the 11th consecutive nonpartisan poll showing Kerry ahead. If Republican registration and GOTV were enough to move this state, it would have shown up in somebody's likely-voter methodology by now. Bush will have to change people's minds to win here. After a month of stagnation despite all the ads, debates, and visits, we don't see it happening. (Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.)
	46	49	N/A	4	10/17-23	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	N/A	3.5	10/17-22	Muhlenberg
	46	51	N/A	3.4	10/16-20	Quinnipiac
	45	46	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	45	51	N/A	4	10/15-17	SurveyUSA (A)
	46	47	1	4	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)
	46	45	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	49	N/A	2.7	10/9-11	Quinnipiac
	46	48	1	4	10/4-6	ARG
	47	49	N/A	3.6	10/3-5	SurveyUSA (A)
	43	50	N/A	4	10/1-4	WHYY/WCU
	43	49	N/A	4	9/30-10/4	Keystone
	47	47	N/A	4	9/25-10/1	Rasmussen (A)
WI (10)	48	45	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Bush iffy. Three leads and two ties in polls taken since Oct. 13 is good evidence of a small Bush lead. Kerry's consolation is that Mason-Dixon's party breakdown is 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll, leaving the possibility that with traditional turnout, Kerry would win the state.
	50	44	3	4	10/16-19	CNN/USA/Gallup
	47	47	N/A	2	10/16-19	ARG
	48	47	2	4	10/14-19	U of Minnesota
	45	45	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47.5	51.3	0.2	3.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	47	48	N/A	4.5	10/14	Rasmussen (A)
	45	48	N/A	5	10/4-13	Wisconsin Public Radio
	49	44	2	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	47	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	49	46	2	4	10/3-5	CNN/USA/Gallup
	48.1	50.6	0.1	3.4	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	44	48	1	5	10/3-5	Lake Snell Perry (D)

Possible Upsets
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
AZ (10)	54	43	N/A	4	10/17-19	Survey USA (A)	Bush pretty safe. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide. (Read Slate's dispatch from Arizona.)
	47	40	N/A	4	10/18-19	Arizona Republic
	49	44	N/A	5	10/7-11	NAU
	55	41	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	Survey USA (A)
	48	38	N/A	4.1	10/2-4	Arizona Republic
AR (6)	48	48	1	4.5	10/18-20	Arkansas News Bureau	Bush at risk. Three weeks ago, the Arkansas News Bureau poll showed him leading by 9 points. Now the same poll shows a tie. The only other conventional surveys since April are ARG, which had Bush ahead by 3 shortly after his convention, and Zogby's poll for the Democrat-Gazette, which had Bush up by 1 two weeks ago. Zogby's more recent online survey has Bush by 1 as well. SurveyUSA has Bush up by 5, but that's a 4-point drop for the president. The more closely you examine the data, the shakier this state looks.
	49.7	48.4	0.2	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	46		2	4.5	10/10-11	Zogby/Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
CO (9)	45	49	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	Bush probably safe. This is the only state in which Reuters/Zogby brought Kerry good news. Maybe he wasn't nuts to fly there over the weekend. But we doubt the six previous conventional surveys showing comfortable leads for Bush are all wrong or outdated. (Read Slate's dispatch from Colorado.)
	52	45	N/A	4.1	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)
	50	45	N/A	4.5	10/18	Rasmussen (A)
	51	45	1	4	10/14-17	CNN/USA/Gallup
	47	42	3	4.9	10/13-14	Rocky Mountain News
	52	44	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	Survey USA (A)
	50	41	N/A	4	10/4-6	Mason-Dixon
	49	49	1	5	10/3-6	CNN/USA
HI (4)	46	45	N/A	4	10/17-20	SMS/Star-Bulletin	Aloha-whoa. Suddenly a state on nobody's radar issues back-to-back surveys showing Bush ahead by a nose. Gore romped here, but absent fresh polling on the other side, we take the new numbers seriously.
	43.3	42.6	N/A	4	10/13-18	Honolulu Advertiser
	41	51	4	4	9/7-11	ARG
MI (17)	42	52	N/A	4.1	10/21-24	Reuters/Zogby	This looks to us like a replay of New Jersey, a state that briefly seemed close but isn't. Two new surveys echo the previous comfortable average lead for Kerry, confirming our analysis that the Mason-Dixon survey showing Kerry up 1 was based on a party breakdown 8 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll. Even a Republican survey a week ago had Kerry up 8. We think the Detroit News poll is wrong.
	46	51	N/A	5	10/17-23	Rasmussen (A)
	43	49	1	4	10/18-21	EPIC/MRA
	44	51	1	3.9	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)
	46.9	42.7	1.2	5	10/18-19	Detroit News
	46	47	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	40	48	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	2	4	10/11-13	Research 2000
	46	49	N/A	5	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)
	42	52	N/A	3.9	10/4-6	Survey USA (A)
MO (11)	50	45	N/A	5	10/17-20	Rasmussen (A)	Bush pretty safe. Mason-Dixon backs up SurveyUSA with a Bush lead of 5 to 6 points . (Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)
	51	45	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	50.7	47.6	1.1	3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	47	N/A	3.8	10/2-4	SurveyUSA (A)
	49.8	47.6	1.3	3	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/22-10/5	Rasmussen (A)
	50	44	N/A	4	9/16-19	ARG
	48	41	1	4	9/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	49	42	N/A	3.5	9/13-16	Research 2000
NJ (15)	43	51	N/A	3.8	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)	Kerry pulling away after his 5-point lead in one poll collapsed to a tie.
	43	44	1	3	10/16-18	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	49	1	3.5	10/14-17	Quinnipiac
	38	51	N/A	N/A	10/14-17	Star-Ledger
	46	46	2	4.5	10/8-14	FDU Public Mind
	41	46	2	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	N/A	4.5	10/7-11	FDU Public Mind
	44	53	N/A	5	9/26-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	41	47	N/A	4.1	10/1-6	Star-Ledger
	46	49	2	3.8	10/1-4	Quinnipiac
	45	50	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)
OR (7)	43	51	N/A	4.5	10/8-21	Rasmussen (A)	Kerry possibly at risk. We blew off the Riley survey because Kerry led by 5 or more points in five of six October polls. Even Gallup had him up 8. But then Mason-Dixon found him leading by just 1 point in a survey whose party breakdown matched statewide registration. Rasmussen agrees with conventional surveys showing Kerry well ahead, but we're going to keep an eye on this one. (Read Slate's dispatch from Oregon.)
	45	45	N/A	4	10/15-18	CNN/USA/Gallup
	46	47	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	44	50	N/A	4	10/9-13	Research 2000
	48	43	1	4.9	10/9-13	Riley Research
	44	49	2	4	10/10-12	ARG
	44	53	N/A	4	10/9-11	SurveyUSA (A)
VA (13)	50	46	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush too close for comfort. His 4-point lead in SurveyUSA is plausible, given the 6-point spread in both September polls.
	50	50	N/A	5	9/14-27	Rasmussen (A)
	49	43	1	4	9/24-27	Mason-Dixon
	53	42	N/A	3.7	9/21-23	SurveyUSA (A)
	49	43	N/A	4	9/12-14	ARG
WA (11)	44	52	N/A	5	10/6-19	Rasmussen (A)	Kerry safe. He has never trailed. (Read Slate's dispatch from Washington.)
	45	52	N/A	4.1	10/16-18	Survey USA (A)
	44	49	2	3	10/4-6	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	54	N/A	4	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	43	50	N/A	5	9/10-23	Rasmussen (A)
WV (5)	48.6	45.8	0.7	4.4	10/13-18	Zogby (O)	Bush pretty safe. Yesterday we put this state in the danger zone pending the first nonpartisan conventional poll of October. Now we've got that poll, and it shows Bush up by 5, contrary to Democratic and online surveys. He regains the presumption of safety. (Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	45	2	4	10/12-14	Global Strategy Group (D)
	50.1	44.0	0.7	4.4	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/17-20	Gallup
	50	44	N/A	4.5	9/14-16	Rasmussen (A)
	46	46	2	4	9/14-16	ARG
	45	44	N/A	4	9/13-19	Mason-Dixon

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here. David Kenner is a former Slate intern. Louisa Thomas is on the editorial staff of The New Yorker.

Photographs of: George Bush smiling by Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images; Bush frowning by Hector Mata/AFP/Getty Images; John Kerry smiling by Jason Cohn/Reuters; Kerry frowning by David Denoma/Reuters.

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