HOME / election scorecard: Where the elections stand today.

Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

By William Saletan, David Kenner, and Louisa Herron ThomasUpdated Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2004, at 4:49 PM ET

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser
	276 Electoral Votes 153 solid, 88 likely, 35 iffy		262 Electoral Votes 174 solid, 53 likely, 35 iffy

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Related in Slate

In the series "Swingers," Slate explores the battleground states for the 2004 presidential election. Read dispatches from: Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia.

Analysis Oct. 20, 11:00 a.m. ET: No change in the electoral vote count yet, but underlying currents are moving to Kerry. Latest polls suggest that a Florida shift to Kerry is more plausible than an Ohio shift to Bush, and a Kerry upset in West Virginia is more plausible than a Bush upset in New Jersey. The quantitative basis for ceding West Virginia to Bush is thin, and online and Democratic polls are making it thinner. We await the first neutral phone poll of October.

Update 1:15 p.m. ET: New polls give Bush hope in New Hampshire but shore up New Mexico and Wisconsin for Kerry. The gradual isolation of Gallup in the latter two states makes us wonder whether to reexamine Gallup's numbers elsewhere.

Note: Analysis in some states is based on surveys not yet posted in the tables.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slate awards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.

Tightest States
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
FL (27)	50.1	48.9	0.3	2.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Bush iffy. Mason-Dixon's survey is newer than UNF's and more consistent with most recent polls. Survey USA has Kerry ahead but is automated and excludes Nader. Still, Bush has now led in just three of six nonpartisan conventional October polls. Kerry had two; the other was a tie. Very dangerous for the president. We'll withhold reevaluation until we see consecutive surveys showing Kerry ahead. (Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)
	49	50	N/A	4	10/15-17	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	45	N/A	4	10/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	49	45	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	49	46	1	4	10/8-14	Rasmussen (A)
	48	48	1	4	10/4-10	Washington Post
	48	44	3	4	10/4-5	Mason-Dixon
	51	44	N/A	3.7	10/1-5	Quinnipiac
	47	49	N/A	4	10/2-5	American Research Group
	49.1	49.5	0.5	2.2	9/30-5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	46	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)

IA (7)	47.9	51.1	0.4	4.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Bush iffy. Three October polls (Trib, GOP firm, and Dem firm) put him narrowly ahead. All other October polls are tied, automated, or online. Zogby's is the newest and has Kerry up 3, but that's a gain for Bush in his survey. We'll need to see a more conventional poll before reevaluating.
	47	47	2	4	10/10-12	American Research Group
	49	46	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	45	1	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	46	50	N/A	5.0	9/27-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	48	47	N/A	3.9	10/4-6	SurveyUSA (A)
	44.5	51.1	0.2	4.1	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)

ME (4)	47	49	N/A	3.9	10/3-5	SurveyUSA (A)	3-1 split for Kerry. In 2000, Bush lost Maine by 5 points and lost its second CD by 1 point. If he loses the state by fewer than 4 points, as polls suggest, he'll probably win the second CD and pick up 1 EV, leaving Kerry the other 3 EVs. *(Read Slate's dispatch from* Maine.)
	47	46	N/A	4	9/20-22	SurveyUSA (A)
	42	45	3	4	9/10-23	Critical Insights
	44	48	4	4	9/8-10	American Research Group

MN (10)	45	47	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)	Kerry likely. He has led in every conventional poll for the past month. *(Read Slate's dispatch from* Minnesota.)
	43	48	2	3.4	10/9-11	Star-Tribune
	43	45	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	43	50	1	3	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)

NV (5)	50	46	N/A	4	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush likely. He has led in every conventional poll. *(Read Slate's dispatch from* Nevada.)
	48	44	2	4	9/20-28	BR&S/Las Vegas Sun
	47	45	N/A	5	9/23	Rasmussen (A)
	52	43	1	5	9/18-21	Gallup

NH (4)	47	46	1	4	10/16-19	American Research Group	Kerry likely. ARG has Bush up 1 but has been consistently at odds with three other conventional pollsters and the Zogby online survey, all of which have shown Kerry leading by 4 to 7 points.
	46.0	51.1	1.1	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	45	49	2	4	10/12-14	Research 2000
	47	47	1	4	10/3-5	American Research Group
	43.9	50.5	1.7	4.1	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	42	49	1	4	10/3-4	Franklin Pierce
	50	45	1	4.3	9/27-10/3	UNH Granite Poll

NM (5)	46	48	1	4	10/16-18	American Research Group	Kerry iffy. This call seemed shaky to us yesterday, but critical mass is now gathering behind Kerry. ARG and Zogby are backing up the Albuquerque Journal poll, leaving Gallup as the sole survey leaning to Bush. (Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)
	44.1	53.6	1.0	4.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	50	47	2	4	10/12-14	CNN/USA
	42.5	53.9	1.7	4.2	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	43	46	2	3	10/1-4	Albuquerque Journal
	45	49	1	4	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)

OH (20)	49	44	N/A	3.5	10/17-18	FOX News	Kerry iffy. ABC's numbers fit the October trend of conventional surveys. Fox's do not. Both automated polls are trending slightly to Kerry, though the online poll isn't. The pattern is clear enough that we'll need double confirmation of the Fox numbers before reevaluating this state. *(Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)*
	47	49	N/A	3.8	10/16-17	Survey USA (A)
	47	50	N/A	3.5	10/14-17	ABC News
	47	47	N/A	4	10/12-18	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	N/A	3.6	10/11-17	Ohio Poll
	49	47	N/A	4	10/7-13	Rasmussen (A)
	51	43	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	49	N/A	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	47	48	1	4	10/4-6	American Research Group
	48	49	N/A	3.6	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	48	47	N/A	4	9/25-10/2	Rasmussen (A)

PA (21)	46	47	1	4	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)	Kerry likely. He leads barely but consistently in all nonpartisan October polls. *(Read Slate's dispatch from* Pennsylvania.)
	46	45	1	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	49	N/A	2.7	10/9-11	Quinnipiac
	46	48	1	4	10/4-6	American Research Group
	47	49	N/A	3.6	10/3-5	SurveyUSA (A)
	43	50	N/A	4	10/1-4	WHYY/WCU
	43	49	N/A	4	9/30-10/4	Keystone
	47	47	N/A	4	9/25-10/1	Rasmussen (A)

WI (10)	44	50	N/A	2	10/16-19	American Research Group	Kerry iffy. Throw out this month's Democratic and Republican surveys, which favor their respective candidates, and you're left with Gallup as the only one of five nonpartisan pollsters to give Bush the lead. ARG has a tie; the rest have Kerry ahead.
	47	47	N/A	2	10/16-19	American Research Group
	47.5	51.3	0.2	3.3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	47	48	N/A	4.5	10/14	Rasmussen (A)
	45	48	N/A	5	10/4-13	Wisconsin Public Radio
	49	44	2	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	47	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	49	46	2	4	10/3-5	CNN/USA
	48.1	50.6	0.1	3.4	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
44	48	1	5	10/3-5	Lake Snell Perry (D)

Possible Upsets
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
AZ (10)	49	44	N/A	5	10/7-11	NAU	Bush pretty safe. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide. *(Read Slate's dispatch from* Arizona.)
	55	41	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	Survey USA (A)
	48	38	N/A	4.1	10/2-4	Arizona Republic

CO (9)	47	42	3	4.9	10/13-14	Rocky Mountain News	Bush pretty safe. Latest poll indicates the ballot measure to split EVs will fail. Kerry's debate surge brings him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide.
	52	44	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	SurveyUSA (A)
	50	41	N/A	4	10/4-6	Mason-Dixon
	49	49	1	5	10/3-6	CNN/USA

MI (17)	46.9	42.7	1.2	5	10/18-19	Detriot News	Kerry safe.
	40	48	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	2	4	10/11-13	Research 2000
	46	49	N/A	5	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)
	42	52	N/A	3.9	10/4-6	SurveyUSA (A)

MO (11)	51	45	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush pretty safe. His lead in Survey USA recovers from 2 to 6, echoing September polls. His Zogby trend is up, too. (Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)
	50.7	47.6	1.1	3	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	47	N/A	3.8	10/2-4	SurveyUSA (A)
	49.8	47.6	1.3	3	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/22-10/5	Rasmussen (A)
	50	44	N/A	4	9/16-19	American Research Group
	48	41	1	4	9/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	49	42	N/A	3.5	9/13-16	Research 2000

NJ (15)	43	51	N/A	3.8	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)	Kerry pulling away after his 5-point lead in one poll collapsed to a tie.
	45	49	1	3.5	10/14-17	Quinnipiac
	38	51	N/A	N/A	10/14-17	Star-Ledger
	46	46	2	4.5	10/8-14	FDU Public Mind
	41	46	2	3	10/9-11	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	N/A	4.5	10/7-11	FDU Public Mind
	44	53	N/A	5	9/26-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	41	47	N/A	4.1	10/1-6	Star-Ledger
	41	49	N/A	4.5	10/1-6	FDU Public Mind
	46	49	2	3.8	10/1-4	Quinnipiac
	45	50	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	Survey USA (A)

OR (7)	45	53	N/A	4	10/15-18	CNN/USA	Kerry probably safe. He leads by 5 or more points in five of six October polls. (Read Slate's dispatch from Oregon.)
	44	50	N/A	4	10/9-13	Research 2000
	48	43	1	4.9	10/9-13	Riley Research
	44	49	2	4	10/10-12	American Research Group
	44	53	N/A	4	10/9-11	SurveyUSA (A)

VA (13)	50	46	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush too close for comfort. His 4-point lead in the Survey USA pollis plausible, given the 6-point spread in both September polls.
	50	50	N/A	5	9/14-27	Rasmussen (A)
	49	43	1	4	9/24-27	Mason-Dixon
	53	42	N/A	3.7	9/21-23	SurveyUSA (A)
	49	43	N/A	4	9/12-14	American Research Group

WA (11)	45	52	N/A	4.1	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)	Kerry safe. He has never trailed. *(Read Slate's dispatch from* Washington.)
	44	49	2	3	10/4-6	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	54	N/A	4	10/2-4	SurveyUSA (A)
	43	50	N/A	5	9/10-23	Rasmussen (A)

WV (5)	48.6	45.8	0.7	4.4	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Bush in danger. Two of three conventional September polls showed a tie. The Zogby online survey, which gave Bush a 6-point lead from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, is down to a 3-point lead from Oct. 13 to 18. A Democratic survey puts the margin at 2. There hasn't been a nonpartisan conventional poll here in October. The first one to come along could swing our evaluation. (Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)
	47	45	2	4	10/12-14	Global Strategy Group (D)
	50.1	44.0	0.7	4.4	9/30-10/5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/17-20	Gallup
	50	44	N/A	4.5	9/14-16	Rasmussen (A)
	46	46	2	4	9/14-16	American Research Group
	45	44	N/A	4	9/13-19	Mason-Dixon

Trial Heat							Trend
Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush	Kerry	Since
45	45	1	2.9	10/14-17	Likely	Reuters/Zogby	-1	+1	10/14-16
47	45	2	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS	-1	0	10/9-11
50	47	1	3	10/14-17	Likely	WP	0	+1	10/14-16
52	44	1	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-5	10/9-10
47	50	1	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps	-1	+2	10/10-11
48	45	2	3.5	10/13-16	Likely	TIPP	0	0	10/12-15
48	46	N/A	4	10/14-15	Likely	Time	+2	+1	10/6-7
50	44	1	4	10/14-15	Likely	Newsweek	N/A	N/A	N/A
48	43	2	3.5	10/9-11	Likely	ICR	-3	-2	10/1-5
49	46	1	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-2	+2	9/27-30
46	50	2	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-6	+5	9/20-22
49	46	1	3	10/4-5	Likely	Marist	-1	+2	9/20-22
46	46	2	3.5	10/2-4	Likely	ARG	-1	-1	8/30-9/1
47	45	1	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	+1	+3	9/21-22
49	44	2	4	10/1-3	Likely	Pew	+2	-2	9/11-14
45	47	2	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-4	+4	9/9-10
51	45	2	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
48	40	2	3.5	9/22-26	Registered	Pew	+3	-2	9/17-21
48	42	5	4	9/21-23	Likely	Time	-4	+2	9/7-9
50	46	1	4	9/17-19	Likely	NBC/WSJ	N/A	N/A	8/23-25
47	48	2	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	0	+1	8/10-15
46	46	3	3.5	9/7-12	Likely	IBD/TIPP	N/A	N/A

Bush Job Approval						Trend
Approve	Disapprove	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Approve	Disapprove	Since
51	47	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-2	10/9-10
49	50	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps	0	+3	9/19-21
49	49	3	10/14-15	Registered	Time	-1	+3	10/7-9
43	48	3	10/9-11	Likely	CBS	-4	+5	10/1-3
52	45	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-1	+2	9/27-30
46	53	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-8	+7	9/20-22
49	48	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist	0	-1	9/20-22
53	43	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	+3	-2	9/21-22
47	43	4	10/1-3	Likely	CBS/NYT	-1	-1	9/20-22
53	45	3	10/1-3	Likely	ABC/WP	+3	+1	9/23-26
49	52	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby	+2	-5	9/17-19
53	43	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	0	-2	9/23
50	45	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	+1	9/7-8
47	48	3	9/17-19	Registered	NBC/WSJ	0	0	8/23-25
50	42	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NYT	0	+1	9/6-8

Re-Elect						Trend
Yes	No	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Yes	No	Since
47	48	4	10/14-15	Registered	Newsweek	-1	+2	9/30-10/2
46	49	2.9	10/8-10	Likely	Zogby	+1	-1	10/5-7
45	51	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-2	+2	9/21-23
50	47	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
47	49	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-5	+4	9/7-9
45	51	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	N/A	N/A

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
Right Wrong Margin
of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/
Pollster Right Wrong Since
39 57 4 10/14-17 Likely NYT/CBS -2 +7 10/1-3
44 51 3.1 10/14-16 Likely Democracy Corps +2 -2 10/3-5
40 55 4 10/14-15 Registered Newsweek N/A N/A N/A
40 53 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -1 +3 9/27-30
40 56 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -5 +4 9/20-22
41 53 3 10/4-5 Registered Marist +3 0 9/20-22
48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely Zogby +5 -3 9/17-19
41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +2 -3 9/23
42 53 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time -3 +2 9/7-9
Favorable/Unfavorable Rating Bush Trend Kerry Trend
Bush Kerry Margin
of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/
Pollster Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Since
43/45 39/44 4 10/14-17 Likely NYT/CBS -1 +1 -1 +3 10/1-3
53/42 46/43 3 10/14-17 Likely WP -1 +2 0 0 10/14-16
55/44 52/45 4 10/14-16 Likely CNN/USA +4 -2 0 +1 10/9-10
49/40 48/37 3 10/14-15 Registered Time -5 +2 +5 -5 9/7-9
53/45 51/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -3 +3 +3 -4 9/27-30
48/42 50/34 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -6 +4 +7 -8 9/7-9
52/43 46/44 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox 0 0 -1 0 9/21-22
57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered Pew +7 -6 -1 +2 9/11-14
49/46 52/40 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -3 +2 +4 -4 9/9-10
56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +1 0 -2 +2 9/23
54/46 48/50 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
50/48 51/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered Marist -1 +1 -5 +8 7/30-8/2
52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox +1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely Gallup N/A N/A N/A N/A
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew -6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10

Trial Heat							Trend
Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush	Kerry	Since
45	45	1	2.9	10/14-17	Likely	Reuters/Zogby	-1	+1	10/14-16
47	45	2	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS	-1	0	10/9-11
50	47	1	3	10/14-17	Likely	WP	0	+1	10/14-16
52	44	1	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-5	10/9-10
47	50	1	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps	-1	+2	10/10-11
48	45	2	3.5	10/13-16	Likely	TIPP	0	0	10/12-15
48	46	N/A	4	10/14-15	Likely	Time	+2	+1	10/6-7
50	44	1	4	10/14-15	Likely	Newsweek	N/A	N/A	N/A
48	43	2	3.5	10/9-11	Likely	ICR	-3	-2	10/1-5
49	46	1	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-2	+2	9/27-30
46	50	2	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-6	+5	9/20-22
49	46	1	3	10/4-5	Likely	Marist	-1	+2	9/20-22
46	46	2	3.5	10/2-4	Likely	ARG	-1	-1	8/30-9/1
47	45	1	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	+1	+3	9/21-22
49	44	2	4	10/1-3	Likely	Pew	+2	-2	9/11-14
45	47	2	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-4	+4	9/9-10
51	45	2	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
48	40	2	3.5	9/22-26	Registered	Pew	+3	-2	9/17-21
48	42	5	4	9/21-23	Likely	Time	-4	+2	9/7-9
50	46	1	4	9/17-19	Likely	NBC/WSJ	N/A	N/A	8/23-25
47	48	2	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	0	+1	8/10-15
46	46	3	3.5	9/7-12	Likely	IBD/TIPP	N/A	N/A

Bush Job Approval						Trend
Approve	Disapprove	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Approve	Disapprove	Since
51	47	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-2	10/9-10
49	50	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps	0	+3	9/19-21
49	49	3	10/14-15	Registered	Time	-1	+3	10/7-9
43	48	3	10/9-11	Likely	CBS	-4	+5	10/1-3
52	45	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-1	+2	9/27-30
46	53	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-8	+7	9/20-22
49	48	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist	0	-1	9/20-22
53	43	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	+3	-2	9/21-22
47	43	4	10/1-3	Likely	CBS/NYT	-1	-1	9/20-22
53	45	3	10/1-3	Likely	ABC/WP	+3	+1	9/23-26
49	52	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby	+2	-5	9/17-19
53	43	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	0	-2	9/23
50	45	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	+1	9/7-8
47	48	3	9/17-19	Registered	NBC/WSJ	0	0	8/23-25
50	42	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NYT	0	+1	9/6-8

Re-Elect						Trend
Yes	No	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Yes	No	Since
47	48	4	10/14-15	Registered	Newsweek	-1	+2	9/30-10/2
46	49	2.9	10/8-10	Likely	Zogby	+1	-1	10/5-7
45	51	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-2	+2	9/21-23
50	47	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
47	49	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-5	+4	9/7-9
45	51	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	N/A	N/A

Right Direction/Wrong Track						Trend
Right	Wrong	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Right	Wrong	Since
39	57	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS	-2	+7	10/1-3
44	51	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps	+2	-2	10/3-5
40	55	4	10/14-15	Registered	Newsweek	N/A	N/A	N/A
40	53	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-1	+3	9/27-30
40	56	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-5	+4	9/20-22
41	53	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist	+3	0	9/20-22
48	47	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby	+5	-3	9/17-19
41	50	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	+2	-3	9/23
42	53	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
43	51	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-3	+2	9/7-9

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating						Bush Trend		Kerry Trend
Bush	Kerry	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Fav	Unfav	Fav	Unfav	Since
43/45	39/44	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS	-1	+1	-1	+3	10/1-3
53/42	46/43	3	10/14-17	Likely	WP	-1	+2	0	0	10/14-16
55/44	52/45	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-2	0	+1	10/9-10
49/40	48/37	3	10/14-15	Registered	Time	-5	+2	+5	-5	9/7-9
53/45	51/44	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-3	+3	+3	-4	9/27-30
48/42	50/34	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-6	+4	+7	-8	9/7-9
52/43	46/44	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	0	0	-1	0	9/21-22
57/40	53/41	3.5	10/1-3	Registered	Pew	+7	-6	-1	+2	9/11-14
49/46	52/40	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-3	+2	+4	-4	9/9-10
56/42	48/48	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	+1	0	-2	+2	9/23
54/46	48/50	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
50/48	51/46	3.5	9/20-22	Registered	Marist	-1	+1	-5	+8	7/30-8/2
52/43	47/44	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	0	-1	0	9/7-8
55/44	51/44	3	9/13-15	Likely	Gallup	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
49/46	51/40	2.5	9/11-14	Registered	Pew	-6	+6	+1	-4	9/8-10

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here. David Kenner is a former Slate intern. Louisa Thomas is on the editorial staff of The New Yorker.

Photographs of: George Bush smiling by Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images; Bush frowning by Hector Mata/AFP/Getty Images; John Kerry smiling by Jason Cohn/Reuters; Kerry frowning by David Denoma/Reuters.

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