HOME / election scorecard: Where the elections stand today.

Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

By William Saletan, David Kenner, and Louisa Herron ThomasUpdated Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2004, at 10:55 AM ET

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser
	284 Electoral Votes 160 solid, 124 close		254 Electoral Votes 163 solid, 91 close

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Analysis Oct. 19: Bush's average national margin narrows; several polls now suggest a tie. Latest polls give Kerry 284 electoral votes, but a more complete Slate analysis later today will assign Florida to Bush, New Mexico to Kerry, and one Maine EV to Bush, leaving Kerry with 276.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

Trial Heat							Trend
Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush	Kerry	Since
45	45	1	2.9	10/14-17	Likely	Reuters/Zogby	-1	+1	10/14-16
47	45	2	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS	-1	0	10/9-11
50	47	1	3	10/14-17	Likely	WP	0	+1	10/14-16
52	44	1	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-5	10/9-10
47	50	1	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps	-1	+2	10/10-11
48	45	2	3.5	10/13-16	Likely	TIPP	0	0	10/12-15
48	46	N/A	4	10/14-15	Likely	Time	+2	+1	10/6-7
50	44	1	4	10/14-15	Likely	Newsweek	N/A	N/A	N/A
48	43	2	3.5	10/9-11	Likely	ICR	-3	-2	10/1-5
49	46	1	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-2	+2	9/27-30
46	50	2	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-6	+5	9/20-22
49	46	1	3	10/4-5	Likely	Marist	-1	+2	9/20-22
46	46	2	3.5	10/2-4	Likely	ARG	-1	-1	8/30-9/1
47	45	1	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	+1	+3	9/21-22
49	44	2	4	10/1-3	Likely	Pew	+2	-2	9/11-14
45	47	2	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-4	+4	9/9-10
51	45	2	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
48	40	2	3.5	9/22-26	Registered	Pew	+3	-2	9/17-21
48	42	5	4	9/21-23	Likely	Time	-4	+2	9/7-9
50	46	1	4	9/17-19	Likely	NBC/WSJ	N/A	N/A	8/23-25
47	48	2	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	0	+1	8/10-15
46	46	3	3.5	9/7-12	Likely	IBD/TIPP	N/A	N/A

Bush Job Approval						Trend
Approve	Disapprove	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Approve	Disapprove	Since
51	47	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-2	10/9-10
49	50	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps	0	+3	9/19-21
49	49	3	10/14-15	Registered	Time	-1	+3	10/7-9
43	48	3	10/9-11	Likely	CBS	-4	+5	10/1-3
52	45	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-1	+2	9/27-30
46	53	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-8	+7	9/20-22
49	48	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist	0	-1	9/20-22
53	43	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	+3	-2	9/21-22
47	43	4	10/1-3	Likely	CBS/NYT	-1	-1	9/20-22
53	45	3	10/1-3	Likely	ABC/WP	+3	+1	9/23-26
49	52	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby	+2	-5	9/17-19
53	43	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	0	-2	9/23
50	45	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	+1	9/7-8
47	48	3	9/17-19	Registered	NBC/WSJ	0	0	8/23-25
50	42	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NYT	0	+1	9/6-8

Re-Elect						Trend
Yes	No	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Yes	No	Since
47	48	4	10/14-15	Registered	Newsweek	-1	+2	9/30-10/2
46	49	2.9	10/8-10	Likely	Zogby	+1	-1	10/5-7
45	51	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-2	+2	9/21-23
50	47	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
47	49	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-5	+4	9/7-9
45	51	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	N/A	N/A

Right Direction/Wrong Track						Trend
Right	Wrong	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Right	Wrong	Since
39	57	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS	-2	+7	10/1-3
44	51	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps	+2	-2	10/3-5
40	55	4	10/14-15	Registered	Newsweek	N/A	N/A	N/A
40	53	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-1	+3	9/27-30
40	56	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-5	+4	9/20-22
41	53	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist	+3	0	9/20-22
48	47	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby	+5	-3	9/17-19
41	50	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	+2	-3	9/23
42	53	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
43	51	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-3	+2	9/7-9

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating						Bush Trend		Kerry Trend
Bush	Kerry	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Fav	Unfav	Fav	Unfav	Since
43/45	39/44	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS	-1	+1	-1	+3	10/1-3
53/42	46/43	3	10/14-17	Likely	WP	-1	+2	0	0	10/14-16
55/44	52/45	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-2	0	+1	10/9-10
49/40	48/37	3	10/14-15	Registered	Time	-5	+2	+5	-5	9/7-9
53/45	51/44	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-3	+3	+3	-4	9/27-30
48/42	50/34	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-6	+4	+7	-8	9/7-9
52/43	46/44	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	0	0	-1	0	9/21-22
57/40	53/41	3.5	10/1-3	Registered	Pew	+7	-6	-1	+2	9/11-14
49/46	52/40	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-3	+2	+4	-4	9/9-10
56/42	48/48	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	+1	0	-2	+2	9/23
54/46	48/50	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
50/48	51/46	3.5	9/20-22	Registered	Marist	-1	+1	-5	+8	7/30-8/2
52/43	47/44	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	0	-1	0	9/7-8
55/44	51/44	3	9/13-15	Likely	Gallup	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
49/46	51/40	2.5	9/11-14	Registered	Pew	-6	+6	+1	-4	9/8-10

								Electoral Vote
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Sample	Dates	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush Solid	Bush Close	Kerry Close	Kerry Solid
AL	56	32	1	4	Likely	10/12-14	Capital Survey	9
AK	57	30	5	4	Likely	9/9-11	American Research Group	3
AZ	49	44	N/A	5	Likely	10/8-11	Northern Arizona U	10
AR	51	46	N/A	4.5	Likely	10/15-17	Survey USA		6
CA	43	53	N/A	4	Likely	9/14-17	Survey USA				55
CO	51	45	1	4	Likely	10/14-17	CNN/USA		9
CT	44	50	2	3.6	Likely	9/26-28	Quinnipiac			7
DE	38	45	2	3.9	Likely	9/22-25	WHYY-TV			3
DC	11	78	6	4	Likely	9/11-13	American Research Group				3
FL	49	50	N/A	4	Likely	10/15-17	Survey USA			27
GA	58	37	2	3	Likely	10/12-14	Strategic Vision	15
HI	41	51	4	4	Likely	9/7-11	American Research Group				4
ID	59	30	3	4	Likely	9/8-10	American Research Group	4
IL	39	55	N/A	3.9	Likely	10/4-6	Survey USA				21
IN	53	40	N/A	4	Likely	10/10-12	Research 2000	11
IA	47	47	2	4	Likely	10/9-12	American Research Group		7
KS	57	35	2	4	Likely	9/15-18	American Research Group	6
KY	57	38	3	3.9	Likely	10/4-6	Survey USA	8
LA	50	42	1	4	Likely	9/17-21	American Research Group	9
ME	47	49	N/A	3.9	Likely	10/3-5	Survey USA			4
MD	41	56	2	4.1	Likely	10/5-7	Survey USA				10
MA	36	51	2	3.5	Registered	9/25-10/5	Merrimack				12
MI	40	48	1	3	Likely	10/12-14	Strategic Vision				17
MN	45	47	N/A	3	Likely	10/12-14	Strategic Vision			10
MS	51	42	1	4	Likely	9/14-17	American Research Group	6
MO	49	47	N/A	3.8	Likely	10/2-4	Survey USA		11
MT	55	34	2	5	Registered	10/7-10	Montana State U.	3
NE	61	30	2	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group	5
NV	50	46	N/A	4	Likely	10/1-3	Survey USA		5
NH	41	46	1	4.9	Likely	10/14-17	Suffolk University			4
NJ	46	46	N/A	4.5	Likely	10/8-14	FD Public Mind		15
NM	50	47	2	4	Likely	10/3-6	CNN/USA		5
NY	35	58	N/A	4.1	Likely	10/9-11	Survey USA				31
NC	50	47	N/A	4	Likely	10/14-17	Survey USA		15
ND	62	33	1	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group	3
OH	45	49	N/A	4.4	Likely	10/8-11	Chicaco Tribune			20
OK	63	33	N/A	3.9	Likely	10/4-6	Survey USA	7
OR	44	49	2	4	Likely	10/10-12	American Research Group			7
PA	45	51	N/A	4	Likely	10/15-17	Survey USA			21
RI	36	56	N/A	4.1	Likely	10/9-11	Survey USA				4
SC	55	42	N/A	4.2	Likely	10/10-12	Survey USA	8
SD	58	39	N/A	4.4	Registered	8/24-26	Public Opinion Strategies	3
TN	58	39	N/A	4	Likely	10/3-5	Survey USA	11
TX	60	37	N/A	4.1	Likely	10/9-11	Survey USA	34
UT	64	27	4	4	Likely	9/10-13	American Research Group	5
VT	40	53	3	5	Likely	10/10-12	Research 2000				3
VA	49	43	N/A	4	Likely	9/12-14	American Research Group		13
WA	45	52	N/A	4	Likely	10/15-17	Survey USA			11
WV	51	45	N/A	5	Likely	9/17-20	Gallup		5
WI	43	47	N/A	4.4	Likely	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune			10
WY	65	29	2	4	Likely	9/9-11	American Research Group	3

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here. David Kenner is a former Slate intern. Louisa Thomas is on the editorial staff of The New Yorker.

Photographs of: George Bush smiling by Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images; Bush frowning by Kevin Lamarque/Reuters; John Kerry smiling by Jason Cohn/Reuters; Kerry frowning by David Denoma/Reuters.

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