| If the Election Were Held Today | |||
| Winner | Loser | ||
160 solid, 124 close
163 solid, 91 close
Analysis Oct. 19: Bush’s average national margin narrows; several polls now suggest a tie. Latest polls give Kerry 284 electoral votes, but a more complete Slate analysis later today will assign Florida to Bush, New Mexico to Kerry, and one Maine EV to Bush, leaving Kerry with 276.
How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.
The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state’s electoral votes in his “solid” column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his “close” column.
In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state’s previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state’s electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:
| Trial Heat | Trend | |||||||||
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Bush | Kerry | Since | |
| 45 | 45 | 1 | 2.9 | 10/14-17 | Likely | Reuters/Zogby | -1 | +1 | 10/14-16 | |
| 47 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 10/14-17 | Likely | NYT/CBS | -1 | 0 | 10/9-11 | |
| 50 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 10/14-17 | Likely | WP | 0 | +1 | 10/14-16 | |
| 52 | 44 | 1 | 4 | 10/14-16 | Likely | CNN/USA | +4 | -5 | 10/9-10 | |
| 47 | 50 | 1 | 3.1 | 10/14-16 | Likely | Democracy Corps | -1 | +2 | 10/10-11 | |
| 48 | 45 | 2 | 3.5 | 10/13-16 | Likely | TIPP | 0 | 0 | 10/12-15 | |
| 48 | 46 | N/A | 4 | 10/14-15 | Likely | Time | +2 | +1 | 10/6-7 | |
| 50 | 44 | 1 | 4 | 10/14-15 | Likely | Newsweek | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| 48 | 43 | 2 | 3.5 | 10/9-11 | Likely | ICR | -3 | -2 | 10/1-5 | |
| 49 | 46 | 1 | 3.1 | 10/3-7 | Likely | Battleground | -2 | +2 | 9/27-30 | |
| 46 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 10/4-6 | Likely | AP | -6 | +5 | 9/20-22 | |
| 49 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 10/4-5 | Likely | Marist | -1 | +2 | 9/20-22 | |
| 46 | 46 | 2 | 3.5 | 10/2-4 | Likely | ARG | -1 | -1 | 8/30-9/1 | |
| 47 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 10/3-4 | Likely | Fox | +1 | +3 | 9/21-22 | |
| 49 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 10/1-3 | Likely | Pew | +2 | -2 | 9/11-14 | |
| 45 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 9/30-10/2 | Registered | Newsweek | -4 | +4 | 9/9-10 | |
| 51 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 9/25-28 | Likely | LA Times | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| 48 | 40 | 2 | 3.5 | 9/22-26 | Registered | Pew | +3 | -2 | 9/17-21 | |
| 48 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 9/21-23 | Likely | Time | -4 | +2 | 9/7-9 | |
| 50 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 9/17-19 | Likely | NBC/WSJ | N/A | N/A | 8/23-25 | |
| 47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 9/9-13 | Likely | Harris | 0 | +1 | 8/10-15 | |
| 46 | 46 | 3 | 3.5 | 9/7-12 | Likely | IBD/TIPP | N/A | N/A | ||
| Bush Job Approval | Trend | ||||||||
| Approve | Disapprove | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Approve | Disapprove | Since | |
| 51 | 47 | 4 | 10/14-16 | Likely | CNN/USA | +4 | -2 | 10/9-10 | |
| 49 | 50 | 3.1 | 10/14-16 | Likely | Democracy Corps | 0 | +3 | 9/19-21 | |
| 49 | 49 | 3 | 10/14-15 | Registered | Time | -1 | +3 | 10/7-9 | |
| 43 | 48 | 3 | 10/9-11 | Likely | CBS | -4 | +5 | 10/1-3 | |
| 52 | 45 | 3.1 | 10/3-7 | Likely | Battleground | -1 | +2 | 9/27-30 | |
| 46 | 53 | 3 | 10/4-6 | Likely | AP | -8 | +7 | 9/20-22 | |
| 49 | 48 | 3 | 10/4-5 | Registered | Marist | 0 | -1 | 9/20-22 | |
| 53 | 43 | 3 | 10/3-4 | Likely | Fox | +3 | -2 | 9/21-22 | |
| 47 | 43 | 4 | 10/1-3 | Likely | CBS/NYT | -1 | -1 | 9/20-22 | |
| 53 | 45 | 3 | 10/1-3 | Likely | ABC/WP | +3 | +1 | 9/23-26 | |
| 49 | 52 | 3.1 | 10/1-3 | Likely | Zogby | +2 | -5 | 9/17-19 | |
| 53 | 43 | 3.1 | 9/27-30 | Likely | Battleground | 0 | -2 | 9/23 | |
| 50 | 45 | 3 | 9/21-22 | Likely | Fox | +1 | +1 | 9/7-8 | |
| 47 | 48 | 3 | 9/17-19 | Registered | NBC/WSJ | 0 | 0 | 8/23-25 | |
| 50 | 42 | 3 | 9/12-16 | Registered | CBS/NYT | 0 | +1 | 9/6-8 | |
| Re-Elect | Trend | ||||||||
| Yes | No | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Yes | No | Since | |
| 47 | 48 | 4 | 10/14-15 | Registered | Newsweek | -1 | +2 | 9/30-10/2 | |
| 46 | 49 | 2.9 | 10/8-10 | Likely | Zogby | +1 | -1 | 10/5-7 | |
| 45 | 51 | 3 | 10/6-7 | Likely | Time | -2 | +2 | 9/21-23 | |
| 50 | 47 | 3 | 9/25-28 | Likely | LA Times | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| 47 | 49 | 3.5 | 9/21-23 | Registered | Time | -5 | +4 | 9/7-9 | |
| 45 | 51 | 4 | 9/9-13 | Likely | Harris | N/A | N/A | ||
| Right Direction/Wrong Track | Trend | ||||||||
| Right | Wrong | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Right | Wrong | Since | |
| 39 | 57 | 4 | 10/14-17 | Likely | NYT/CBS | -2 | +7 | 10/1-3 | |
| 44 | 51 | 3.1 | 10/14-16 | Likely | Democracy Corps | +2 | -2 | 10/3-5 | |
| 40 | 55 | 4 | 10/14-15 | Registered | Newsweek | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| 40 | 53 | 3.1 | 10/3-7 | Likely | Battleground | -1 | +3 | 9/27-30 | |
| 40 | 56 | 3 | 10/4-6 | Likely | AP | -5 | +4 | 9/20-22 | |
| 41 | 53 | 3 | 10/4-5 | Registered | Marist | +3 | 0 | 9/20-22 | |
| 48 | 47 | 3.1 | 10/1-3 | Likely | Zogby | +5 | -3 | 9/17-19 | |
| 41 | 50 | 3.1 | 9/27-30 | Likely | Battleground | +2 | -3 | 9/23 | |
| 42 | 53 | 3 | 9/25-28 | Likely | LA Times | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| 43 | 51 | 3.5 | 9/21-23 | Registered | Time | -3 | +2 | 9/7-9 | |
| Favorable/Unfavorable Rating | Bush Trend | Kerry Trend | ||||||||
| Bush | Kerry | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Fav | Unfav | Fav | Unfav | Since |
| 43/45 | 39/44 | 4 | 10/14-17 | Likely | NYT/CBS | -1 | +1 | -1 | +3 | 10/1-3 |
| 53/42 | 46/43 | 3 | 10/14-17 | Likely | WP | -1 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 10/14-16 |
| 55/44 | 52/45 | 4 | 10/14-16 | Likely | CNN/USA | +4 | -2 | 0 | +1 | 10/9-10 |
| 49/40 | 48/37 | 3 | 10/14-15 | Registered | Time | -5 | +2 | +5 | -5 | 9/7-9 |
| 53/45 | 51/44 | 3.1 | 10/3-7 | Likely | Battleground | -3 | +3 | +3 | -4 | 9/27-30 |
| 48/42 | 50/34 | 3 | 10/6-7 | Likely | Time | -6 | +4 | +7 | -8 | 9/7-9 |
| 52/43 | 46/44 | 3 | 10/3-4 | Likely | Fox | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9/21-22 |
| 57/40 | 53/41 | 3.5 | 10/1-3 | Registered | Pew | +7 | -6 | -1 | +2 | 9/11-14 |
| 49/46 | 52/40 | 4 | 9/30-10/2 | Registered | Newsweek | -3 | +2 | +4 | -4 | 9/9-10 |
| 56/42 | 48/48 | 3.1 | 9/27-30 | Likely | Battleground | +1 | 0 | -2 | +2 | 9/23 |
| 54/46 | 48/50 | 3 | 9/25-28 | Likely | LA Times | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 50/48 | 51/46 | 3.5 | 9/20-22 | Registered | Marist | -1 | +1 | -5 | +8 | 7/30-8/2 |
| 52/43 | 47/44 | 3 | 9/21-22 | Likely | Fox | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9/7-8 |
| 55/44 | 51/44 | 3 | 9/13-15 | Likely | Gallup | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| 49/46 | 51/40 | 2.5 | 9/11-14 | Registered | Pew | -6 | +6 | +1 | -4 | 9/8-10 |
| Electoral Vote | |||||||||||
| State | Bush | Kerry | Nader | Margin | Sample | Dates | Sponsor/ Pollster | Bush Solid | Bush Close | Kerry Close | Kerry Solid |
| AL | 56 | 32 | 1 | 4 | Likely | 10/12-14 | Capital Survey | 9 | |||
| AK | 57 | 30 | 5 | 4 | Likely | 9/9-11 | American Research Group | 3 | |||
| AZ | 49 | 44 | N/A | 5 | Likely | 10/8-11 | Northern Arizona U | 10 | |||
| AR | 51 | 46 | N/A | 4.5 | Likely | 10/15-17 | Survey USA | ||||
