HOME / election scorecard: Where the elections stand today.

Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

Updated Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2004, at 10:15 AM ET

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser
	278 Electoral Votes 178 solid, 100 close		260 Electoral Votes 178 solid, 82 close

RSS

Analysis Oct. 12: Minnesota shifts to Kerry; New Mexico shifts to Bush. Two of three national polls begun Oct. 8 or later show Kerry leading within the margin, but the average still tilts toward Bush. Bush's job approval is 50 or below in the four polls begun Oct. 4 or later. In the
two post-debate surveys that asked whether he deserves re-election, the percentage saying no is 50 or above. Wrong track is above 50 and ahead of right direction by double digits in nearly all October polls.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

Trial Heat							Trend
Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush	Kerry	Since
44	47	2	2.9	10/8-10	Likely	Reuters/Zogby	-1	+1	10/7-9
48	49	1	4	10/9-10	Likely	CNN/USA	-1	0	10/1-3
51	45	1	3	10/8-10	Likely	ABC/WP	0	-1	10/7-9
46	45	4	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-1	+4	9/21-23
46	50	2	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-6	+5	9/20-22
49	46	1	3	10/4-5	Likely	Marist	-1	+2	9/20-22
51	45	2	3.3	10/1-5	Likely	ICR	0	+3	9/24-28
48	49	1	3.1	10/3-5	Likely	Democracy Corps	-1	+3	9/26-28
46	46	2	3.5	10/2-4	Likely	ARG	-1	-1	8/30-9/1
47	45	1	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	+1	+3	9/21-22
47	47	1	4	10/1-3	Likely	CBS/NYT	-1	+6	9/20-22
49	44	2	4	10/1-3	Likely	Pew	+2	-2	9/11-14
45	47	2	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-4	+4	9/9-10
51	44	1	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	+1	-1	9/22-23
51	45	2	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
45	45	2	4	9/22-27	Likely	IBD/TIPP	0	+3	9/14-18
48	40	2	3.5	9/22-26	Registered	Pew	+3	-2	9/17-21
48	42	5	4	9/21-23	Likely	Time	-4	+2	9/7-9
50	46	1	4	9/17-19	Likely	NBC/WSJ	N/A	N/A	8/23-25
47	48	2	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	0	+1	8/10-15
46	46	3	3.5	9/7-12	Likely	IBD/TIPP	N/A	N/A
51	46	1	3.5	9/7-9	Likely	AP	N/A	N/A

Bush Job Approval						Trend
Approve	Disapprove	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Approve	Disapprove	Since
47	49	4	10/9-10	Likely	CNN/USA	-3	+1	10/1-3
50	46	3	10/7-9	Likely	Time	-3	+3	9/21-23
46	53	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-8	+7	9/20-22
49	48	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist	0	-1	9/20-22
53	43	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	+3	-2	9/21-22
47	43	4	10/1-3	Likely	CBS/NYT	-1	-1	9/20-22
53	45	3	10/1-3	Likely	ABC/WP	+3	+1	9/23-26
49	52	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby	+2	-5	9/17-19
53	43	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	0	-2	9/23
50	45	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	+1	9/7-8
49	47	3.1	9/19-21	Likely	Democracy Corps	-1	-1	9/12-14
47	48	3	9/17-19	Registered	NBC/WSJ	0	0	8/23-25
53	45	3.1	9/12-15	Likely	Battleground	+2	-1	8/15-17
50	42	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NYT	0	+1	9/6-8

Re-Elect						Trend
Yes	No	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Yes	No	Since
45	51	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-2	+2	9/21-23
44	50	2.9	10/4-6	Likely	Zogby	-2	+1	10/1-3
48	46	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-2	0	9/9-10
50	47	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
47	49	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-5	+4	9/7-9
45	51	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris	N/A	N/A

Right Direction/Wrong Track						Trend
Right	Wrong	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Right	Wrong	Since
40	56	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP	-5	+4	9/20-22
41	53	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist	+3	0	9/20-22
42	53	3.1	10/3-5	Likely	Democracy Corps	+2	0	9/26-28
40	51	4	10/1-3	Likely	CBS/NYT	-1	-3	9/20-22
48	47	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby	+5	-3	9/17-19
41	50	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	+2	-3	9/23
42	53	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A
43	51	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time	-3	+2	9/7-9
41	53	3.1	9/12-15	Likely	Battleground	+1	-1	8/15-17
46	49	3	9/7-9	Registered	Time	+1	-1	8/31-Sept. 2
44	52	3	9/6-8	Registered	CBS	+5	-3	7/30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating						Bush Trend		Kerry Trend
Bush	Kerry	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Fav	Unfav	Fav	Unfav	Since
51/46	52/44	4	10/9-10	Likely	CNN/USA	-2	+1	0	+1	10/1-3
53/43	47/46	3	10/8-10	Likely	ABC/WP	0	+1	+1	+4	10/2-4
48/42	50/34	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-6	+4	+7	-8	9/7-9
52/43	46/44	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	0	0	-1	0	9/21-22
44/44	40/41	3	10/1-3	Likely	CBS/NYT	-2	+6	+8	-3	9/20-22
57/40	53/41	3.5	10/1-3	Registered	Pew	+7	-6	-1	+2	9/11-14
49/46	52/40	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-3	+2	+4	-4	9/9-10
56/42	48/48	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	+1	0	-2	+2	9/23
54/46	48/50	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
50/48	51/46	3.5	9/20-22	Registered	Marist	-1	+1	-5	+8	7/30-8/2
52/43	47/44	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	0	-1	0	9/7-8
55/44	51/44	3	9/13-15	Likely	Gallup	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
54/44	49/47	3.1	9/12-15	Likely	Battleground	+3	-3	-5	+5	8/15-17
49/46	51/40	2.5	9/11-14	Registered	Pew	-6	+6	+1	-4	9/8-10
54/38	43/42	3	9/7-9	Registered	Time	+9	-7	-10	+13	8/3-5
47/39	32/41	3	9/6-8	Registered	CBS	+4	-5	-6	+7	7/30-8/1

								Electoral Vote
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Sample	Dates	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush Solid	Bush Close	Kerry Close	Kerry Solid
AL	62	34	N/A	4	Likely	10/1-3	Survey USA	9
AK	57	30	5	4	Likely	9/9-11	American Research Group	3
AZ	55	41	N/A	4.1	Likely	10/5-7	Survey USA	10
AR	52	43	1	4.5	Likely	10/4-6	Opinion Research	6
CA	40	49	N/A	4.3	Likely	9/30-10/3	Field				55
CO	50	41	N/A	4	Likely	10/4-6	Mason-Dixon	9
CT	39	54	1	4	Likely	9/12-14	American Research Group				7
DE	38	45	2	3.9	Likely	9/22-25	WHYY-TV			3
DC	11	78	6	4	Likely	9/11-13	American Research Group				3
FL	48	44	N/A	4	Registered	10/4-5	Mason-Dixon		27
GA	58	39	N/A	4.1	Likely	10/5-7	Survey USA	15
HI	41	51	4	4	Likely	9/7-11	American Research Group				4
ID	59	30	3	4	Likely	9/8-10	American Research Group	4
IL	39	55	N/A	3.9	Likely	10/4-6	Survey USA				21
IN	58	39	N/A	4.1	Likely	10/3-5	Survey USA	11
IA	47	48	N/A	3.9	Likely	10/4-6	Survey USA			7
KS	57	35	2	4	Likely	9/15-18	American Research Group	6
KY	57	38	3	3.9	Likely	10/4-6	Survey USA	8
LA	50	42	1	4	Likely	9/17-21	American Research Group	9
ME	47	49	N/A	3.9	Likely	10/3-5	Survey USA			4
MD	41	56	2	4.1	Likely	10/5-7	Survey USA				10
MA	36	51	2	3.5	Registered	9/25-10/5	Merrimack				12
MI	42	52	N/A	3.9	Likely	10/4-6	Survey USA				17
MN	46	46	N/A	4.5	Likely	9/18-24	Rasmussen		10
MS	51	42	1	4	Likely	9/14-17	American Research Group	6
MO	49	47	N/A	3.8	Likely	10/2-4	Survey USA		11
MT	53	33	N/A	4	Registered	5/24-26	Mason-Dixon	3
NE	61	30	2	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group	5
NV	50	46	N/A	4	Likely	10/1-3	Survey USA		5
NH	47	47	1	4	Likely	10/3-5	American Research Group		4
NJ	39	47	2	4.5	Likely	10/1-6	Farleigh Dickerson U			15
NM	50	47	2	4	Likely	10/3-6	CNN/USA			5
NY	40	52	1	4	Likely	9/14-16	American Research Group				31
NC	52	45	N/A	4	Likely	10/2-4	Survey USA		15
ND	62	33	1	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group	3
OH	47	48	1	4	Likely	10/4-6	American Research Group			20
OK	63	33	N/A	3.9	Likely	10/4-6	Survey USA	7
OR	45	47	N/A	4	Registered	9/24-27	KATU-TV			7
PA	46	48	1	4	Likely	10/4-6	American Research Group			21
RI	30	58	4	4	Likely	9/11-13	American Research Group				4
SC	54	42	N/A	4	Registered	9/7-9	Public Opinion Strategies	8
SD	58	39	N/A	4.4	Registered	8/24-26	Public Opinion Strategies	3
TN	58	39	N/A	4	Likely	10/3-5	Survey USA	11
TX	57	34	N/A	3	Registered	8/9-26	Scripps Howard	34
UT	64	27	4	4	Likely	9/10-13	American Research Group	5
VT	40	50	4	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group				3
VA	49	43	N/A	4	Likely	9/12-14	American Research Group		13
WA	43	54	N/A	4	Likely	10/2-4	Survey USA				11
WV	51	45	N/A	5	Likely	9/17-20	Gallup		5
WI	49	46	2	4	Likely	10/3-5	CNN/USA		10
WY	65	29	2	4	Likely	9/9-11	American Research Group	3

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Photographs of: George Bush smiling by Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images; Bush frowning by Kevin Lamarque/Reuters; John Kerry smiling by Jason Cohn/Reuters; Kerry frowning by David Denoma/Reuters.

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