The average return reflects the recommended asset allocation (i.e., is not a straight average of the various assumed returns), and would vary depending on the timing and amount of any portfolio rebalancing. In the early years of the forecast, using the illustrated assumptions with no rebalancing, the return is a shade under 9 percent. In later years, thanks to changes in the weighting resulting from different rates of growth, it creeps up to 9.5 percent. Overall, using these assumptions, I calculate an average 10-year return of 9.1 percent. (For obvious reasons, the brokerage firm doesn't trumpet the projected return in big type. One has to find it by examining the details of several bar graphs that show one's account growing at a very impressive rate.)