Update on Recent Events in Ivory Coast

DEC. 8, 2003—These dispatches were written in late October and November. At that time, the peace process in Ivory Coast was at an impasse. The rebels and the government had signed a cease-fire in July and formed a national unity government. But in late September, dismayed by what they saw as President Laurent Gbagbo's unwillingness to fully implement the peace accords and delegate power to the Cabinet, the rebels withdrew their ministers from this government, effectively blocking the peace process. Despite several international mediation efforts, the impasse remained unresolved, and partisans on both sides began suggesting that they would be forced to return to war. In the south, Gbagbo loyalists seemed particularly eager to go on the offensive, convinced that they could drive the rebels from the country. This is where things stood when I left the Ivory Coast two weeks ago.

Last week, tensions reached a boiling point when 100 Ivorian troops from a hawkish army faction joined with some 200 members of a pro-Gbagbo youth movement called the Young Patriots in an attempt to cross the demilitarized zone separating the government and rebel territories. French peacekeepers used tear gas and ultimately bullets to turn them back. Four Young Patriots were killed in the skirmish, prompting violent demonstrations outside the main French military base in Abidjan. Protesters demanded the withdrawal of French forces, and dissident army officers appeared on national television to beg Gbagbo to authorize an attack against the rebels.

In an attempt to resolve the crisis, Gbagbo met with the rebel's chief military commander and reached a surprising breakthrough. Gbagbo announced that he would fully implement the peace accords and that the government and the rebels would hold talks this week aimed at clearing the way for a national disarmament program scheduled to begin Dec. 15. Gbagbo also announced that he would travel to the rebel stronghold of Bouaké and from there formally declare an end to Ivory Coast's civil war. Government and rebel troops began pulling back from the front lines this past weekend.

But while the immediate crisis may have passed, there are plenty of potential stumbling blocks ahead. The rebels have already begun questioning the timetable for disarmament, and they have not yet said whether they will allow their nine ministers to rejoin the national unity government. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Gbagbo will live up to his promise to give more power to his Cabinet.

The loyalist camp has split into pro-war and pro-peace factions, and on Friday, army troops exchanged gunfire with the Ivorian police in Abidjan, killing one police officer. In addition, most experts believe there are not enough international peacekeepers in the country to properly oversee a disarmament program. France and several West African nations have asked for a U.N. force of up to 10,000 soldiers to be sent to Ivory Coast, but so far the United States, which pays almost a third of the cost of all U.N. peacekeeping missions, has resisted the idea. What's more, the peace accords call for controversial changes to Ivory Coast's constitution and nationality laws that may prove difficult to implement.