Chile ReceptionThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 99 percent

Chile proposes three-week deadline for Iraqi compliance with five demands but no automatic war trigger. Fleischer calls it a "nonstarter." Turkey indicates it won't consider U.S. deployment until late next week. Bush schedules Sunday summit with Blair and Aznar, ostensibly to take one last shot at diplomacy. Bush dangles promise of new plan for a Palestinian state; Blair touts it as a message to Muslims that while confronting Saddam "we accept the obligation of evenhandedness."

Yesterday: 99 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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