No ExitThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 99 percent

France and Russia declare they "will not allow a resolution to pass that authorizes resorting to force." Upshot: U.S. must either back down without explicit war deadline or attack without U.N. approval. Odds of U.S. troop deployment in Turkey rise steeply as Turkish military leader endorses deployment and legislators indicate they'll vote for it. Iraqi official shocks meeting of Muslim countries by telling Kuwaitis, "Shut up, you minion, you [U.S.] agent, you monkey. … You are insolent. You are a traitor to the Islamic nation."

Yesterday: 96 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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