Soviet BlockThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 96 percent

Turkish stock market plummets and U.S. threatens to withdraw aid unless Turkish parliament reconsiders its vote against admitting U.S. troops. Turkish leader holds out possibility of revote "in the coming days." Russian foreign minister says of U.N. war vote, 1) "Russia will not abstain" or "support any decision that would directly or indirectly lead to a war," and 2) "If the situation so demands, Russia will of course use its right of veto." Iraq destroys three more missiles, five engines, and a launcher. Latest timetable: U.S. and allies will make war decision around March 14 with or without U.N. support.

Yesterday: 96 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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