Missile EpistleThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 98 percent

Security Council debate goes nowhere. Mexico shifts toward U.S. position to make nice with Bush; Angola calls for more dialogue with U.S. "to see how we can accommodate each other." Pakistani diplomats say Pakistan will probably abstain but might vote with U.S. Blix report says inspection "results in terms of disarmament have been very limited," and "It is hard to understand why a number of the measures which are now being taken [by Iraq] could not have been initiated earlier." Iraq agrees to destroy banned missiles "in principle" but asks Blix to send a team to "establish a framework and timetable" for it. Turkey postpones its vote on U.S. troop deployments again. Powell suggests Arab League could encourage Saddam "to step down."

Tuesday: 98 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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