U.N., We OutThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 95 percent

Turkish foreign minister says Turkey and U.S. have reached "very broad agreement on all subjects. … I think we will be able to overcome the differences." Blix will ask Iraq to answer 30 questions before his March 7 Security Council briefing. Rumsfeld says U.S. now has "ample" forces in place to attack, but Powell says if Saddam "complies, or if he leaves the country tomorrow, there will be no war." U.N. removes half its aid workers from Iraq in preparation for possible evacuation.

Yesterday: 94 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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