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saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Casual CockiesThe odds of war.

By William Saletan
Updated Thursday, Feb. 20, 2003, at 5:49 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 94 percent

Iraq coughs up list of biological and missile scientists demanded by Blix, but U.N. officials tell Washington Post Iraq is getting cocky and "not fulfilling" promises to search for documents and produce scientists for unmonitored interviews. U.N. sources say Blix will ask Iraq to destroy missiles Iraq insists are legal. Turkey ignores Powell's demand for a reply by Thursday to "final" U.S. troop deployment proposal. U.S. officials brag anonymously that they have a Plan B for a northern front. Security Council members Angola, Cameroon, and Guinea sign a declaration at Franco-African summit expressing "support for the continuation of the inspections."

Yesterday: 92 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War.
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