Ankara ManagementThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 92 percent

Inspectors say that Iraqi scientists have refused unrecorded interviews since Feb. 7 and that this is unsatisfactory. Turkish-U.S. "final offer" negotiating game continues. Body language says U.S. will blink first. U.S. and Britain plan to introduce a resolution this week saying Iraq is in "material breach" and faces "serious consequences." Blair defends Bush against British anti-war protesters. Chirac implicitly threatens Eastern Europeans with rejection of EU membership over pro-U.S./anti-French statements on Iraq.

Yesterday: 92 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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