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Chance of Invasion
Today: 93 percent

Washington Post reports U.S. troops are in Iraq laying groundwork for invasion. (Saddameter doesn't count this as invasion.) U.N. team declares Iraqi missiles with excessive range a clear violation of U.N. resolutions. U.S. suggests this finding justifies war; Russia suggests it justifies more inspections. Britain rejects U.S. view that Iraq's terms for U-2 flights are "unacceptable." NATO postpones resolution of Turkish defense aid request until after Blix's Friday briefing to U.N. Security Council. Powell indicates U.S. is working with "a number of countries" to "entice" Saddam to step down.

Yesterday: 92 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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