HOME / saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Another Condi Heard FromThe odds of war.

By William SaletanPosted Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2003, at 4:02 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 92 percent

Blix won't declare clear Iraqi violations of Resolution 1441 in his Feb. 14 report. Rice lobbies him to flunk Iraq. She rejects Iraq's U-2 concession as conditional. Iraq tries to pass a domestic ban on WMD, as demanded by Blix, in time for his report. France and Germany reject U.S. compromise on NATO aid to Turkey. Russia declares evidence in Powell's February presentation "not convincing." Powell will press France and Germany to specify a deadline for giving up on inspections. U.S. dumps more propaganda leaflets in southern Iraq.

Yesterday: 94 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.
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