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saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Pressed TurkeyThe odds of war.

By William Saletan
Posted Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2003, at 2:34 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 91 percent

Turkish leader tells his party 1) Iraq "isn't taking the necessary steps" for peace; and 2) "The decisions we make for war are not because we want a war, but so we can contribute to peace" by taking part in and influencing "the operation" in Iraq. Translation: U.S. will get its northern front. Despite Blair's lobbying, Chirac reiterates inspectors should get to decide how long they need. Iraq says it will "explore" proposal by European Parliament members to let non-Iraqis (rather than Iraqi agents) serve as witnesses to scientists' interviews. Britain says Iraq has thoroughly bugged inspectors but gives no documentation.

Yesterday: 88 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War.
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