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saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Powell Point PresentationThe odds of war.

By William Saletan
Posted Monday, Feb. 3, 2003, at 3:43 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 88 percent

Powell says he'll present no "smoking gun" to Security Council on Feb. 5, but a U.S. official says the presentation will include photos of mobile bioweapons facilities and will refer to transcripts of Iraqi officials' conversations. Al-Hayat reports Saddam rejected asylum offer from Turkey. Turkish prime minister says he'll ask Parliament to allow foreign troops in Turkey. Blix and ElBaradei will return to Iraq Feb. 8-Feb. 9 to try to iron out disputes over U2 flights and scientist interviews, but Iraq isn't budging on either issue. Peace spin: Shuttle disaster has chastened U.S. War spin: Shuttle disaster has made U.S. want to kick somebody.

Friday: 85 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War.
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