Ammo DumpThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 84 percent

Bush says 1) U.S. intelligence shows Saddam is hiding WMD, silencing scientists, and helping al-Qaida; and 2) Powell will present this intelligence to Security Council Feb. 5. Bush indicates Saddam has blown "his final chance." Britain agrees Iraq is in "material breach" of U.N. resolution. Blair will lobby European leaders to support war. Russia says it could end up supporting war but now sees no "grounds for the use of military force."

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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