Biting the HansThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 80 percent

Dispute sharpens and solidifies between Blix and Iraq. Blix: "Iraq appears not to have come to a genuine acceptance—not even today—of the disarmament which was demanded of it. … [Iraq's Dec. 7 declaration] does not seem to contain any new evidence that would eliminate the questions." Iraq's U.N. ambassador: "Iraq has fully complied with all its obligations. … All the remaining disarmament issues referred to in Mr. Blix's statement were actually explained in our declaration." U.S. says it will publicly disclose intelligence showing Iraq is hiding WMD from inspectors. Peace spin: Security Council skeptics still aren't budging. War spin: Iraq is eliminating the alternatives to war.

Yesterday: 71 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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