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saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Throwing in the PowellThe odds of war.

By Julia Turner
Posted Monday, Jan. 20, 2003, at 4:30 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 65 percent

Blix warns the Iraqis to cooperate or face war. Iraq fesses to locating four more empty chemical warheads it neglected to disclose to the U.N. It also promises to create an inspection team to help the U.N. search out weapons and to urge Iraqi scientists to meet with U.N. inspectors privately. Fleischer dismisses Iraqi promises of cooperation as all talk. Meanwhile, the Bushies continue to press for quick decision on war: Condi and Rummy want a decision "within weeks." Powell is at the U.N. meeting with Security Council members and urging them to make a call by the end of the month. China, for one, still sees Jan. 27 as the beginning of the process. Administration officials also encourage the idea of exile for Saddam, but given his warmongering speech last week, no one thinks it's likely. Peace spin: Iraq's stabs at cooperation—genuine or no—will encourage the Security Council to be patient with inspections. War spin: Bush & Co. might not wait for the Security Council's approval.

Friday: 64 percent

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Julia Turner is Slate's deputy editor. You can e-mail her at .
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