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saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Registered GuessThe odds of war.

By Julia Turner
Posted Friday, Jan. 17, 2003, at 5:32 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 64 percent

Disagreement on whether the warheads found yesterday were registered in Iraq's 12,000-page declaration of its biological and chemical weapons. Fleischer says the warheads were not registered. Blix says he's not yet sure. The New York Times says Iraqis say the warheads were registered. The Washington Post says the Iraqis say the warheads were "too insignificant to put in its declaration." Meanwhile, Fleischer says Iraqis say they "forgot" to list the warheads and calls the find "troubling and serious" but stops short of calling the failure to list these warheads a "material breach" of U.N. sanctions. The Security Council opposes the U.S. proposal to block Blix's proposed March report. U.N. Ambassador Negroponte says the U.S. is committed to Security Council unity. Blix and ElBaradei plan to ask the U.N. to give inspectors even more time, and they have Chirac's support. Peace spin: Bushies are backing off due to Security Council opposition. War spin: Bushies are backing off because inspectors seem closer to finding a smoking gun.

Yesterday: 64 percent

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Julia Turner is Slate's deputy editor. You can e-mail her at .
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