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saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

War HeadedThe odds of war.

By Julia Turner
Posted Thursday, Jan. 16, 2003, at 4:12 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 64 percent

In Iraq, U.N. inspectors discover warheads capable of carrying chemical weapons and interview two Iraqi scientists. One is allowed to accompany U.N. inspectors to an undisclosed location. At a U.N. Security Council meeting today, the U.S. says it doesn't want to wait for a March report from Blix before making a decision on war. Russia and France would rather wait. The U.S. says that if the U.N. delays making a decision (by insisting on a second resolution), it would consider going to war anyway. Blair says he wouldn't rule out lending a hand. Russia's foreign minister argues that unilateral action "is capable only of worsening the already difficult situation." Rumsfeld counters that failing to act would undermine the U.N. Peace spin: Key members of the war coalition want a deliberate process and are digging in their heels. War spin: They may cave once they hear about the warheads. And if they don't, the U.S. may go to war without them.

Yesterday: 61 percent

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Julia Turner is Slate's deputy editor. You can e-mail her at .
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