MidtermsThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 63 percent

Inspectors tell Security Council Iraq's Dec. 7 report confirms violations of U.N. sanctions and has "discrepancies" regarding munitions, missiles, VX, and WMD scientists. Powell says U.S. is giving inspectors intelligence, but Blix says inspectors "haven't found any smoking guns." Blix says Iraq hasn't responded to questions about information missing from its report; Iraq denies such questions were submitted. Blix adds Iraq has made no "serious effort" to address inspectors' request for lists of scientists. Iraqi official says no Iraqi scientist "is ready to go outside" Iraq to be interviewed. ElBaradei says inspectors "are not able to have interviews in Iraq in private, and that does not show the proactive cooperation we seek." U.S. officials indicate if Turkey doesn't offer war aid right now, U.S. will have to give up on attacking from the north. Peace spin: Inspectors' analysis of the Dec. 7 report doesn't show Iraq has WMD. War spin: The analysis doesn't show Iraq is free of WMD.

Yesterday: 65 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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