Pax EuropaThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 65 percent

Third-hand report from Philippine official says Arab regimes are privately urging Saddam to step down. European Union will send an emissary to Arab leaders in early February "to mediate in averting a conflict." Saddam deputy Aziz repeats charges of "espionage" by inspectors. Blix will press Iraqi officials next week to supply biological weapons information missing from their Dec. 7 report. If Turkey stands by its plan to postpone a war aid decision until inspectors' Jan. 27 report to Security Council, U.S. analysts say it will be "too late" to give U.S. a northern front. Peace spin: The EU peace mission will screw up Bush's war plan. War spin: Bush's war plan will moot the EU peace mission.

Yesterday: 66 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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