Slate's Bizbox
saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Watching the DetectivesThe odds of war.

By William Saletan
Updated Monday, Jan. 6, 2003, at 12:28 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 69 percent

Saddam accuses inspectors of "making lists of Iraqi scientists, [asking] questions that carry hidden agendas, giving special attention to military camps … most of which constitute purely intelligence work." Turkish foreign minister says Turkey probably won't accept many U.S. troops. New Security Council member Pakistan indicates sympathy with U.S.; Council diplomat says Germans "are indicating that they will not be an obstacle to military action if the facts … show that Saddam is cheating." New York Times reports U.S. still "has yet to fully share what intelligence it has with the inspectors." U.S. hints at amnesty for Iraqi officials who help topple Saddam. Buildup continues, but British officials estimate odds of war have fallen from 60-40 to 40-60. War spin: Saddam is cracking under the pressure. Peace spin: Not enough to stop cooperating.

Friday: 68 percent

Print This ArticlePRINTDiscuss this in The FrayDISCUSSEmail to a FriendE-MAIL
Share on FacebookPost to MySpace!Share with MixxDigg ThisShare with RedditShare with del.icio.usShare with FurlShare with Ma.gnolia.comShare with SphereShare with Stumble Upon
William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War.
Join the Fray: our reader discussion forum
What did you think of this article?
POST A MESSAGE | READ MESSAGES
Washington Post
The Washington Post
OPINIONS
In Palin's Defense
Telnaes Animation | John McCain makes a case for his running mate's foreign policy expertise.
Editorial: Sarah vs. Big Oil