One of the Fingers on the Button Will Be GermanThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 69 percent

Germany joins Security Council but backs off its hard line against war. Inspectors say they've found "zilch." Korea news completely buries Iraq news. Third-hand Iranian report says U.S. and Russia are weighing a plan to offer Saddam refuge in Moscow if he steps down. Thousands of U.S. troops head toward Gulf. War spin: The troops are for war. Peace spin: They're for added pressure and won't affect Security Council votes.

Tuesday: 73 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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