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Chance of Invasion
Today: 71 percent

Washington Times reports U.S. intelligence officials think Iraq is 1) hiding two scientists in Saddam's palaces and 2) hiding WMD underground. Annan says, "Iraq is cooperating, and [inspectors] are able to do their work in an unimpeded manner. Therefore I don't see an argument for a military action now." Bush's budget director slashes war cost projections to more palatable level. North Korean crisis escalates, dwarfing Iraq news. Peace spin: With all eyes on North Korea, nobody's watching Saddam. War spin: With all eyes on North Korea, nobody's watching Bush.

Yesterday: 73 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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