KoreographyThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 75 percent

North Korean nuclear rearmament threatens focus on Iraq. White House says 1) U.S. military action against North Korea isn't under consideration; and 2) North Korea's "threats or broken commitments" won't blackmail U.S. into negotiations. Another bombing incident in southern Iraqi no-fly zone. Inspectors continue interviews with Iraqi scientists; Iraq says U.S. tried to bribe scientists to defect months ago. Turkey won't pledge support for war until Security Council hears from inspectors, presumably on Jan. 27. Peace spin: Iraq says scientists can decide individually whether to be interviewed outside the country. War spin: They know if they leave, they'll be killed.

Yesterday: 77 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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