Distraxis of EvilThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 75 percent

Inspectors begin informal interviews with Iraqi scientists. Iraq agrees to allow formal interviews without Iraqi officials present but reserves judgment on interviews abroad. Iraq says it has no documents to fill in gaps cited by inspectors in its Dec. 7 report. Iraq shoots down an American spy drone, but U.S. says it's just the usual. U.S. stays low-key about North Korea's revived nuclear program but says it can fight both countries if necessary. Peace spin: Iraq is cooperating with inspections to distract the U.N. from pursuing documents and interviews. War spin: The strategy is failing.

Friday: 75 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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