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Chance of Invasion
Friday: 75 percent

U.S. will give inspectors satellite intelligence, possibly this weekend, to guide inspections. U.S. may also supply lists of Iraqi scientists to interview. Turkey remains undecided on assisting war. American officials indicate invasion decision will be made by Jan. 27, one day before the State of the Union. Peace spin: If Iraq changes course, it can still avoid war. War spin: If Iraq doesn't change course, it can't avoid war.

Thursday: 72 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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