Crude GestureThe odds of war.

Chance of Invasion
Today: 67 percent

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U.S. officials say Iraq's WMD report doesn't even try to explain what happened to weapons documented by previous inspectors. They debate whether this is grounds for war. New York Times sources dismiss Washington Post story about a "credible" report of Iraq passing VX to al-Qaida. Iraq cancels an oil contract with Russian companies, jeopardizing support on U.N. Security Council. U.S. presses Blix to demand that Iraq produce scientists for interviews outside the country. Peace spin: Iraq will say no. War spin: Exactly.

Yesterday: 61 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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