HOME / saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Iraq and al-Qaida, Part VXThe odds of war.


Chance of Invasion
Today: 61 percent

Two American officials tell Washington Post U.S. has a "credible report" of al-Qaida associates getting a chemical weapon, suspected to be VX, from Iraq in recent weeks. No information on whether Saddam was aware of the alleged transaction. Iraq denies the story. Other U.S. officials tell AP there's no credible evidence of Iraq providing VX to al-Qaida. Meanwhile, Los Angeles Times says Bush's courtship of crucial Turkish help is in trouble. War spin: Aha! The link between al-Qaida and Iraq is proved! Peace spin: This is the best Cheney's leakers can come up with?

Yesterday: 62 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.
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