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Chance of Invasion
Today: 62 percent

U.S.officials concede that 1) inspectors are unlikely to find incriminating evidence in the next four months and 2) persuading Iraqi scientists to talk will be much harder than expected. Blix asks Security Council members for preliminary assessments of Iraq's WMD report by Dec. 13. Anti-war protests in the U.S. are widespread but not heavily attended. U.S. courts Turkey but gets no explicit commitments and may prove unable to deliver the European Union membership Turkey wants. Qatar agrees to upgrade bases, but Rumsfeld says it's irrelevant to current Iraq situation. In newly released Dec. 5 interview, Powell claims "many nations" have said they're "prepared to go with" U.S. against Iraq, even without Security Council approval. Peace spin: U.S. hasn't denounced Iraq's report. War spin: U.S. is feigning open-mindedness.

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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