Look, Ma, No ArmsThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 63 percent

Iraq formally declares it has zero weapons of mass destruction. On VX gas program: "Nothing still exists." On biological weapons program: It "never existed after 1991." Upshot: No wiggle room if U.S. or inspectors produce evidence to the contrary. But U.S. officials concede they have no airtight proof Iraq is lying. Instead, they say 1) Saddam must prove he destroyed his WMD; and 2) his report fails to do so. Iraq's explanation: We destroyed "all the evidence that [our biological weapons program] ever existed." Meanwhile, Saddam plays into Bush's anti-terror spin by urging Muslims to consider "jihad against the occupying infidel [U.S.] armies" in Kuwait. Peace spin: Bush can't prove Iraq has lied. War spin: Iraq will keep lying till he can.

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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