Two in the BushThe odds of war.

Chance of Invasion
Today: 55 percent

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More inspections, no refusals, no smoking guns. Turks limit cooperation with U.S. war plans, but Bush will lobby them for more. Action shifts to Washington, where Bush (Saddam doesn't seem "interested in complying"), Powell (inspections are "off to a good start"), and Rumsfeld ("The burden of proof is on the Iraqi regime") issue different verdicts. Bush rips Saddam for shooting at U.S. planes and writing harsh letters to the U.N. American officials think Iraq's Dec. 8 report will be vague and useless, but they expect Iraqi obstruction when inspectors start going to previously unvisited sites. War spin: Bush is dissatisfied. Peace spin: Bush is increasingly isolated in his dissatisfaction.

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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