Storming the PalaceThe odds of war.

Chance of Invasion
Today: 56 percent

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U.S. and U.N. comments increasingly diverge. 1) Iraq allows first surprise inspection of its "presidential sites." Annan calls it a "good indication that the Iraqis are cooperating," despite Bush's statement Monday that early signs were "not encouraging." 2) Blix says there could be "good explanations" for Monday's discovery that items previously tagged by inspectors are missing. 3) White House sets up Catch-22: Saddam is a scofflaw if he admits he has forbidden weapons, and he's a scofflaw if he denies it. War spin: Inspectors are getting tough to show Iraq the U.S. is serious. Peace spin: Inspectors are acting tough to show the U.S. Iraq is compliant.

Yesterday: 58 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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