The SaddameterThe odds of war.

Chance of Invasion
Today: 58 percent

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Bush sweet-talks Putin. Officially, Putin agrees Iraq must be denied weapons of mass destruction, but he says action against Iraq should be taken only with U.N. (aka Russian) approval. Unofficially, Bush hints at a deal to protect Russian economic interests in exchange for Russia's acquiescence. Peace spin: Like France and Germany, Russia is dragging its heels. War spin: Not as much as we expected, and we just need them to look the other way.

Yesterday: 57 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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