The SaddameterThe odds of war.

Chance of Invasion
Today: 57 percent

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More exchanges of fire in the no-fly zones. American soldiers rehearse assault tactics in Kuwait. U.S. asks allies to chip in troops or weapons in case of war, but American and British officials describe their activity as building a "credible threat." Hans Blix insists the Iraqis will cooperate, but Bush indicates the key will be Iraq's Dec. 8 declaration of the extent of its weapons of mass destruction: "Should [Saddam] again deny that this arsenal exists, he will have entered his final stage with a lie ... [which] will invite the severest of consequences."

Yesterday: 56 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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