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NATO dropped about 15,000 bombs over Yugoslavia, releasing about 13,000 tons of explosive power. Only a few dozen weapons went astray or hit the wrong target. Yet they killed about 1,200 civilians—or one civilian for every 10 tons dropped. The ratio is remarkably similar to that of major bombing campaigns in the Vietnam War. In Operation Rolling Thunder, from 1964-67, the United States dropped 650,000 tons, killing 52,000 North Vietnamese civilians. In the Christmas 1972 bombing around Hanoi and Haiphong Harbor, 20,000 tons killed 1,600 civilians. The point should not be carried too far. The destruction of Vietnam was obviously far more catastrophic in scope. Similarly, if NATO had hit Belgrade targets with the weapons of Vietnam or even of Desert Storm, the casualties would have been higher than they turned out to be. I first reported these calculations in the Boston Globe of May 30, 1999.

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