Modern information technology is pro-secession for the same reason that, as I noted earlier in this series, it's anti-autocrat: It lowers the cost of organizing an interest group. The separatism-empowering effects of this fact will go well beyond the Muslim world, and for that matter beyond such famous hotbeds of separatism as Basque Spain. (It's safe to say that, if it weren't for the cheap organizing power of e-mail and the World Wide Web, we wouldn't have the current secessionist movement in the San Fernando Valley—where, as one observer put it, "the valley secessionists are on a jihad to create a new city.") However, when this trend surfaces in the Muslim world, people who are partial to the "clash of civilizations" paradigm will tend to see the underlying unity as being Islam, not information technology; they'll see the separatists as part of a unified anti-American front.

Reinforcing this temptation will be two things: 1) Al-Qaida and other such groups are opportunistic, and will subsidize any Islamic rebels who can do favors in return—so some essentially autonomous Muslim groups can technically be described as "linked to al-Qaida"; 2) The governments battling Muslim separatists—in China, the Philippines, Russia, wherever—will naturally exaggerate links to al-Qaida in order to get American support. If we fall into this trap and treat all separatist groups as part of an anti-American network, they will gradually become that—directing more of their venom at America and coordinating with like-minded groups.

The likely coming wave of separatism—Islamic and non-Islamic—has one other implication: We have to construct a global order for newly formed nations to fall gracefully into. Back when Quebec secessionism briefly seemed plausible, the secessionists said that, once they dropped out of Canada, they would join the North American Free Trade Association. That is a natural goal for people who are cutting old economic ties, and we can expect future secessionists to echo it—wanting to join transnational trade groups such as the European Union or the World Trade Organization pronto. That's one virtue in turning the WTO into the multi-dimensional organization I've recommended, an organization whose members must adhere to key international treaties. For a newly formed state to join the WTO would then mean accepting various terrorism-fighting obligations, ranging from biotechnology-monitoring to intelligence-sharing.