HOME / the book club: New books dissected over e-mail.

Rainbow's End

The Unnerving Parallels Between 1929 and 2001

Posted Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2001, at 12:44 PM ET

This week's reading.

Who are these people?

Dear Nell,

Thought I'd plunge into a nice dry history book to forget my grief over George Harrison. What could fit the mood better than a bleak account of the stock market plunge of 1929? So there I am on Page 227, slogging through it, when who appears to rally the beleaguered investors? George Harrison, that's who. Not exactly the same one—in this case, the head of the Federal Reserve Board under the Hoover administration. But still, his reincarnation offered consolation in a dark moment.

By the way, wasn't the Rutles movie called All You Need Is Cash? As I recall, only George appeared—could this be the beginning of a new Beatles conspiracy theory?

The book in question, Rainbow's End: The Crash of 1929, is the latest offering from Maury Klein, a business historian at the University of Rhode Island. Klein has succeeded better than most 19th-century historians at breaking out of the doldrums of the academic profession and writing books that appeal to lay readers. His last book, Days of Defiance, did surprisingly well—readably recounting the story of the phony war that followed Lincoln's election in the fall of 1860 and heated up with the firing on Fort Sumter in April 1861. He has also written extensively on robber barons and railroads.

With this new offering, he's jumping into both the 20th and the 21st centuries, for there are unnerving parallels between some of the conditions that he describes in 1929 and the current economic slump—finally upgraded to a recession by the people in charge of economic nomenclature. The book is the second in a new series from Oxford on "Pivotal Moments in American History," which began with James Patterson's fine book on Brown v. Board of Education. I'm always a little suspicious of these history marketing ideas—they can give off the stale odor of a cardboard exhibit for President's Day at the local library—but it's too early in the life of the series to pass harsh judgment.

What Klein offers here is more or less exactly what you'd expect—although frankly a bit less than I hoped for. In its factual way, the book gives context to the stock market nose-dive that ended the free-wheeling 1920s. There are all the connections one would hope for—the empowered position the United States enjoyed at the end of the Great War, the conditions that led to vast new sources of wealth and public participation in Wall Street's adventure in the '20s, and finally the crash itself—harrowing not only for its merciless theft of life savings but for its enduring mystery, even 72 years later.

The explanations for the crash are slightly clearer after reading Klein (who dismisses the crash and Depression as an "aberration"), but not a whole lot. That, I suppose, is my chief complaint. Klein gives us plenty of what happened, but not too much why. There are diverting explanations of "air pockets" and other market abnormalities that led to the panic, but little in the way of an overarching theory for why the market collapsed when and how it did. I took away the sense that seven decades later (the equivalent distance between 1857 and 1929), we still don't really know what caused it. Can that be right?

Another complaint is a bit unfair, but I'll make it anyway. There's not enough cultural history for my taste. Where are the flappers and the executives cheating on their wives and the crooked brokers with phony tips and the broken-hearted investors? There's a bit of human drama here and there—some amusing episodes about Groucho Marx and his obsession with playing the market, a couple vignettes about Joe Kennedy (who got out at just the right moment, saving his dynasty), a couple of reflections on people who got burned, a discourse on flagpole sitting—but not enough to make the book really pulse.

Having complained, I'd also like to call attention to what I liked about the book. Klein excavates some interesting characters who played bit parts in the drama. Alexander Dana Noyes, the New York Times financial writer who sensed something wrong earlier than most. (In a hilariously prissy photo, he seems to have walked straight out of a Gluyas Williams cartoon.) Billy Durant, who pulled together the companies that became GM, only to go bust and return to Flint, Mich., to open up a bowling alley.

I enjoyed reading all the fatuous predictions by politicians and business leaders who assured the public that 1929 would be another banner year because the science of reading upwardly curving graphs proved that progress would continue forever. I also enjoyed their brainless insistence after the disaster that the market was enjoying a long overdue and healthy "correction"—the same sort of thing we hear whenever there's bad news. Klein is also right to point out that the crash and Depression are separate events, and that the crash was more complex than anything that happened on a single day like Black Thursday—an impression fanned by countless yuletide rebroadcasts of It's a Wonderful Life.

Inevitably, readers will want to reflect on the similarities between 1929 and 2001, and Klein gives plenty of food for thought. Certainly, there are interesting echoes between the '20s and the go-go 1990s. Just as we wired ourselves and bought deeply into the idea of a New Economy, so the nation wired itself (with radio and electricity) and believed in a "New Era" back then. Interestingly, the New York Yankees dynasty appeared to have peaked at exactly the moment of the crash—just as it now has.

Three days ago, George Will wrote a column insisting that the economy is not so bad, which of course made me think it must be much worse than I imagined. I'd be interested in hearing your more seasoned thoughts, Nell. I'd also like to reflect more on what the government should and shouldn't have done to stanch the bleeding. Klein doesn't do too much of that—he's good on Hoover's inertia, but he barely mentions FDR, whose impressive handling of New York state propelled him to the presidency. I'll close with those questions and with this link to a recent article telling us the federal surplus is, like this book, history.

Best,
Ted

The Unnerving Parallels Between 1929 and 2001

Posted Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2001, at 12:44 PM ET
Print This ArticlePRINTEmail to a FriendE-MAILShare This ArticleRECOMMEND...Get Slate RSS FeedsRSS
Nell Minow is the editor of the Corporate Library, which covers corporate governance and performance, and writer of Movie Mom, reviews of films and videos. Ted Widmer recently published Ark of the Liberties: America and the World. He was a speechwriter for President Clinton.
Photograph of stock brokers reading ticker tape on Slate's Table of Contents from Bettmann/Corbis.
COMMENTS

Economic forecasting is more complex than weather forecasting. And we know how the experts do at predicting weather! The chit-chat presented by the Book Club revolves around public sentiments without touching any of the thousands of variables that converged on 1929. It's nice to lament about "government's role" in the economy and how woefully small it was then and how great its 30% stranglehold is today.

Closer to reality is that running a real tax collection surplus and tightening lending standards in the face of a world recession contributed to the depth of the depression. Why did Jimmy Stewart suffer his run on the bank? Yes, people feared that leaving their dough would allow it to vaporize, but the real issue was liquidity. The feds dried up printing money while life went on and folks needed it.

Of course a run on banks could happen today, but then few have money lying idle. So the Fed's liquidity policy coupled with its release of artificially high interest rates will assist in bottoming this market out and likely starting a new run.

--Fair and Balanced

(To find or answer this post, click here.)

It would be instructive to compare monetary policy as implemented by the Federal Reserve during the period 1929 to 1939 with monetary policy of the last ten years.
Every time the economy perked up in the 1930's the New York Fed tightened the money supply. Finally in the late thirties preparation for War was a de facto application of Keynsian econmomics and full employment was achieved with ease. Recently the money supply has doubled in the last six or seven years and is currently growing at about a 13% annual rate. Since there has been no price inflation of goods and services the money has gone to create or sustain an inflation in asset prices. My father was expecting 1929 to happen again at any moment after the cessation of hostilities in 1945. That war did not end until 1989. Are we at the same kind of historical mile marker as we were in 1929?
Can it continue? Should it?

--James P. Savage

(To find or answer this post, click here.)


The 1929 stock market crash was caused by speculation on margin which the article didn't mention. Leverage works both ways. When the shares of individual stock purchased on 90% margin dropped 10%, the speculators who couldn't answer a margin call were sold out. The crash was aggravated by a "slow tape" when the "ticker" couldn't keep up and brokers didn't know the actual trading prices because the reported transaction were running very late.

--Ross J. Laningham

(To find or answer this post, click here.)


"Current accounting principles are based on 19th century concepts, with most of the value coming from land and equipment, not from intellectual property and human capital." So says Neil Minow. Question is, how do you correctly value intellectual property and human capital? How do you know what the intellectual property is worth until you see how it works out in real life? How good do you know a prospective employee is until he's worked for you for a few weeks? Is the issue one of accounting principles, or is it one of valuation, which is a separate subject from accounting?

--Edward Brynes

(To find or answer this post, click here.)

(12/6)

What did you think of this article?
Join The Fray: Our Reader Discussion Forum
POST A MESSAGE | READ MESSAGES
TODAY'S PICTURES
TODAY'S CARTOONS
TODAY'S DOONESBURY
TODAY'S VIDEO
American Indians.16/TP.jpg
Cartoonists' take on abortion.21/TC.jpg
Long and winding, and others.19/TD.jpg