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Two Baseball Writers Discuss the World Series

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from: Rob Neyer
to: Rany Jazayerli

It’s a Tossup 

Updated Friday, Oct. 26, 2001, at 3:03 PM ET

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Rany:

I refuse to make a prediction, but I’ve got to quibble with at least some of your analysis.

There’s absolutely no good reason to think the Yankees have an edge in defense. Yes, they’ve made some great plays recently, but where, exactly, are they better than the Diamondbacks?

Catcher? Probably not. Posada is a better hitter than catcher; Damian Miller is a better catcher than hitter.

First base? Mark Grace has won four Gold Gloves. Tino Martinez hasn’t won any.

Second base? The jury’s still out on Alfonso Soriano, but I don’t know that he’s any better than Craig Counsell.

Shortstop? One of the running themes over at Baseball Prospectus is that Derek Jeter is, at best, an average defensive shortstop. Better than Tony Womack? Maybe. But maybe not.

Third base? I’ll allow that Scott Brosius is better than Matt Williams, but the difference isn’t huge.

And in the outfield, the Diamondbacks have it all over the Yankees. Paul O’Neill is slow as molasses, and Chuck Knoblauch reminds me of no one so much as Lonnie Smith. No, Reggie Sanders and Luis Gonzalez aren’t going to win any Gold Gloves, but they’re certainly better than their counterparts. Center field features New York’s Bernie Williams and Arizona’s Steve Finley. They’ve both got four Gold Gloves on their mantels, but most of the evidence suggests that Finley deserved his far more than Williams deserved his.

If anything, the Diamondbacks probably have the edge on defense.

Your other edges for the Yankees are lineup, bullpen, experience, and managerial acumen.

I’m not sure about “lineup,” given that the Diamondbacks scored more runs than the Yankees this season, and without benefit of the DH. Granted, Luis Gonzalez probably isn’t really as good as his 2001 stats, and perhaps Paul O’Neill and David Justice are better than theirs. But again, I just don’t see much evidence to support the notion that the Yankee lineup is appreciably better.

Bullpen? You bet. Mariano Rivera is the best in the business, at least in the postseason. And Mike Stanton also pitches at a higher level when the chips are down.

Experience? If you mean postseason experience, there’s no comparison. But the Diamondbacks are one of the oldest postseason teams in history, so I don’t see them wilting under the pressure.

Managerial acumen? I’ll give you this one, too ... but on the other hand, one of these days Torre’s loyalty to guys like O’Neill and Luis Sojo is going to hurt him.

And you mention, off-handedly, that “The Diamondbacks have a decent bench.” As if the benches don’t really matter. Well, they could matter a lot, my friend. The Yankee bench is horrible, featuring one hard-hitting outfielder (Shane Spencer) and a bunch of superfluous middle infielders (Sojo, Enrique Wilson, Clay Bellinger). The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, don’t have a “decent bench.” They’re loaded. Erubiel Durazo, Greg Colbrunn, Jay Bell, Danny Bautista ... these guys are all players, good enough for regular duty with a lot of teams.

And while the Yankee bench didn’t matter when they were playing American League teams, now they’ve got to play as many as four games by National League rules. And I think the Diamondbacks are going to win at least one game because their bench is so much better than the Yankees’.

The Yankees do have one big edge that you didn’t mention, though: scouting. The Yankees have more, and perhaps better, advance scouts than any team in baseball. I believe that one of the reasons for their amazing postseason success—40 wins and only 11 losses since 1998—is simply that they’re better prepared than their opponents, due in large part to extensive scouting.

Will they win their fourth straight World Series? Sorry, but I refuse to make a prediction this year because I simply don’t have a handle on all of the issues. I do agree that Game 1 is huge, and I also agree that Mike Mussina has the edge. Here’s what I’ll say: On paper, the Diamondbacks are just as good as the Yankees, perhaps even a tad better. But if the Yankees “out-scouted” the Diamondbacks, then yes, they probably will win again.

Rob

sports nut
entries
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425
from: Rob Neyer
to: Rany Jazayerli

It’s a Tossup 

Updated Friday, Oct. 26, 2001, at 3:03 PM ET
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Rob Neyer is a senior baseball writer with ESPN.com and his latest book is The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. Rany Jazayerli is a writer for the Baseball Prospectus.
Photograph of Bob Brenly by Mike Blake/Reuters.
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