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Two Baseball Writers Discuss the World Series

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from: Rany Jazayerli
to: Rob Neyer

How the Diamondbacks Got Old 

Updated Friday, Oct. 26, 2001, at 1:00 PM ET

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Rob:

I can’t say I’m rooting for the Yankees either, if only because there are laws against that for Midwest natives. But I certainly can’t say that I’m rooting against them because, as little affinity as I hold for the Yankees, I hold even less for Jerry Colangelo’s outfit in the desert.

There’s something very disquieting about the way the Diamondbacks have reached this point. They have defied just about every principle of sabermetrics and somehow succeeded. Even though objective analysis shows that most players decline in their early 30s, the Diamondbacks pinned their hopes on a collection of players born during the Lyndon Johnson presidency. On-base percentage is the most important offensive skill for a leadoff hitter, and the Diamondbacks started their lineup with Tony Womack (.307 OBP) all season. After winning 100 games two years ago, they fell to 85-77 last year. But instead of taking the hint and trying to rebuild with youth, they go out and sign 36-year-old Mark Grace to play first base, relegating their best young hitter, Erubiel Durazo, to the bench.

So what happens? One of those players in his mid-30s, Luis Gonzalez, has an out-of-body experience (57 homers? 419 total bases?!) Erubiel Durazo becomes the most dangerous pinch-hitter in the majors. And most importantly of all, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, 37 and 34 years old apiece, turn in the two finest seasons by a starting pitcher in baseball.

But as much as I find both World Series teams eminently unlikable, I can’t help but be intrigued by the matchup itself. The Yankees have a chance to accomplish something (win four straight championships) that I would have thought impossible in the multi-tiered playoff structure of modern baseball. (Plus, they have a chance to keep the Curse of the Balboni going.) The Diamondbacks, by hitching their wagon so tightly to their two great starters, have a chance to prove how unimportant second-line talent is in the postseason.

I don’t think the D-Backs can do it. Schilling and Johnson are fabulous, but the Yankees have the edge in just about every other department—lineup, defense, bullpen, experience, and managerial acumen. (The Diamondbacks do have a decent bench.)

To me, the key pitcher in this series isn’t Schilling or Johnson, or Clemens, or Rivera. It’s the one guy who hasn’t received nearly enough attention for the season he’s having: Mike Mussina. Clemens may be a shoo-in for the Cy Young Award, but I would argue that Mussina actually had the better year. He goes against Schilling in Game 1, and for all the accolades that Schill is getting, who really has the edge? Their ERAs are nearly identical (Mussina’s 3.15 to Schillng’s 2.98), and Schilling didn’t have to pitch against the DH.

Mussina might even be the better big-game pitcher. While Schilling has three straight complete-game wins in the playoffs this year, since 1997 Mussina has made six postseason starts—and he’s 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a miniscule 19 hits allowed in 42 innings. Two of those wins came against some guy named Randy Johnson.

If the Diamondbacks can take Game 1, I think they can make a series of it. But if the Yankees win, it should be over fairly quickly. And I think that Mussina can beat Schilling. Yankees in six.

Rany

sports nut
entries
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425
from: Rany Jazayerli
to: Rob Neyer

How the Diamondbacks Got Old 

Updated Friday, Oct. 26, 2001, at 1:00 PM ET
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Rob Neyer is a senior baseball writer with ESPN.com and his latest book is The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. Rany Jazayerli is a writer for the Baseball Prospectus.
Photograph of Bob Brenly by Mike Blake/Reuters.
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