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Japanese ZeroThe statistical case against Ichiro.

By Ben McGrathPosted Thursday, Aug. 30, 2001, at 3:00 AM ET

Ichiro Suzuki Ask a group of baseball fans to name the leading MVP candidates this year, and Seattle's 27-year-old "rookie," Ichiro Suzuki, is bound to come up. Last month, after all, Texas Rangers catcher Ivan Rodriguez, himself a former American League MVP, declared, "Right now, [Ichiro's] the best player in the big leagues." This followed earlier claims from Mets skipper Bobby Valentine and franchise player Mike Piazza that the Japanese star was one of the five best players in the world. "That's not just hype," Piazza insisted. "I totally believe it." Even the American League managers have pitched in, voting him the best base-runner, the second-best hitter, and the third-best defensive outfielder in the league in Baseball America's survey. All of which proves only one thing: that Ichiro is one of the most overrated baseball players playing today. And that's not just hype.

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To hear it from the press, "lightning-swift" Ichiro has an "eye-catching swing" in which he "hoists" his bat "the way an artist might hold up his thumb to study a subject" and then produces infield hits "diabolically pounded into the dirt." This is a poetic way of saying that Ichiro is a slap-hitter with little power (more than one-fifth of his hits are infield singles; more than 70 percent of his at-bats result in ground balls) and an impatient eye at the plate (he rarely walks). His considerable speed enables him to stretch his fair share of gappers into doubles and triples, but he is essentially a singles hitter. In other words, he is the Wee Willie Keeler of his age—diminutive and quick, a contact hitter with a batting average in the .340s, largely through "hitting 'em where they ain't."

Before the All-Star Game, the Dallas Morning News crowed that "no one can get him out." In fact, though, Ichiro has made 373 outs, more than all but five players (Johnny Damon, Garret Anderson, the Blue Jays' Alex Gonzalez, Darin Erstad, and Miguel Tejada) in the AL, and more than all but nine players in the major leagues. He may be on track for 240-plus hits, but his on-base percentage (.381), the real aptitude test for a leadoff hitter, is not in the top 15 in the American League. His next-door neighbor in that category? Detroit's Bobby Higginson. And while it's true that Ichiro's speed has helped place him among the leaders in triples, he has just six home runs in his 573 at bats—all of which makes for a perfectly respectable slugging average of .462, good for 37^th best in the league. Or, in other words, almost as good as Scott Brosius.

But Ichiro's particular strengths, if you take it from the sportswriters, lie not in conventional, straightforward numbers (on-base percentage, slugging average) that are fundamentally tied to scoring runs and thus winning ballgames. His strengths are revealed in the more obscure numbers—the ones that aren't, well, so obviously useful.

The Detroit Free Press, for instance, has explained that Ichiro is the AL's best leadoff hitter "for two reasons: he strikes out less than any hitter in the league—which means he's always putting the ball in play—and he's among the fastest players in the league." Fair enough on the latter point (though it should be noted that he's second in the majors in times caught stealing). And in the case of the former, it's true that Ichiro, with just 40 whiffs, has averaged a healthy 15 trips to the plate between strikeouts. But what does this really mean? Is it somehow better that Ichiro has grounded out more often than any other player, as long as he's not getting fanned? The elite company in the unfannable category includes such luminaries as Sandy Alomar Jr. and Einar Diaz, after Ichiro, in the American League, and Juan Pierre, Fernando Vina, and Lenny Harris in the NL. Between the five of them they've got 11 home runs.

Another role of the leadoff man—more useful, certainly, than simply not striking out—has traditionally been to work the pitcher, to make him show you a few pitches. Rickey Henderson, the greatest leadoff batter of them all, is famous for his lengthy at-bats and averaged four and a half pitches per trip throughout his prime. But Ichiro, who sees the fewest pitches (3.4) per time at-bat in the American League, works opposing pitchers less hard than anyone else.

So, if Ichiro's not the messiah he's made out to be, what explains the Mariners' success this year? Well, for starters, Edgar Martinez is—and has for six years been—the Mariners' best hitter. Then there's John Olerud, a better, more patient hitter than Ichiro (and also voted the best fielder at his position by the league's managers); Bret Boone, a surprising but nearly comparable replacement for the departed Alex Rodriguez in the middle of the infield; and Freddy Garcia, who has developed into a legitimate Cy Young candidate. Mike Cameron, an outfield partner of Ichiro's, is a better base-stealer and has put up some impressive power numbers.

Ichiro is having a great season, especially for a rookie, however old. He is not the MVP, though, and he's a long way from being one of the five best players in the world. He might be one of the five best players on his team. And that's no insult.

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Ben McGrath is on the staff of The New Yorker.

Photograph of Ichiro Suzuki by Anthony Bolante/Reuters.

COMMENTS

Reader Comments From The Fray:

[Notes from the Fray Editor: There was, unsurprisingly, a huge response to this article, and very few readers were taking the time to say how much they liked it. The selection below are the polite versions. Jon Daehnke was one of many readers who looked at the statistics—his take is here.]

McGrath makes some interesting points about Ichiro Suzuki's rising reputation in ML baseball and his overall play. I can agree that some of Ichiro's growing popularity is based on hype, but I can't agree that he is merely having an average season, no better than Scott Brosius or Bobby Higginson. If forced to take sides, I would side with Mike Piazza and others who regard Ichiro quite highly.

I notice that many of the other posted comments [in The Fray] chalk McGrath's critique up to anti-Japanese bias. This is unfair, but I do detect a kind of snobbery in the article towards the kind of game Ichiro brings with him from his years in the Japanese League. Ichiro excelled in the relatively unselfish, strategy and speed approach to baseball and he is showing that this style can get results in the American game as well. Ichiro certainly doesn't do it alone, but he puts a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers and defenses and gets across the plate more than anyone else in the league.

--Richard Baxstrom

(To reply, click here.)

Sorry, but as a Mariner's fan who has been to a lot of games this year and has watched a bunch more, you are missing four key aspects of Ichiro's game that don't show up in the stats but do make a difference on the field.

First, his speed and potential to steal a base rattles and distracts opposing pitchers to the point that they lose their concentration on the hitter at the plate. This is one reason the batters behind Ichiro are enjoying great seasons--they're seeing more pitch outs and getting pitches to hit because the pitcher is worried about Ichiro.

Second, the fact that Ichiro bunts his way on and gets infield hits means opposing defenses sometimes do crazy positioning. At a recent game against Detroit, the third baseman crept way in looking for a bunt with men on first and second. Instead, Ichiro drove the ball between third and short. Because the runners were going on the pitch, both scored.

Third, Ichiro is a spark plug to the team. He tends to get clutch hits and ignite alot of rallies. The fans love him and when he gets on base everybody in the stadium gets a little more fired up.

Finally, you don't mention defense and Ichiro plays a superb right field. He has the strongest and most accurate throwing arm I've ever seen. When you add his stellar defense to his other attributes, he's a very special player--certainly in the top echelon in the league.

You're right that he isn't patient enough at the plate and needs to draw more walks. But that's about the only real flaw I've seen. Your assertion that he makes lots of outs is a red herring. Of course he makes more outs than other players--he's the leadoff hitter on the best offense in the AL. I'll take a >.340 batting avg and .381 ob pct. any day to get the rest of the package.

--Scott

(To reply, click here.)

Some facts you've overlooked:

--His high out numbers are inflated by the fact that he's a leadoff hitter...just like the other five outs leaders mentioned. Hitting first guarantees more ABs and therefore more chances to make outs.

--His batting average with runners in scoring position is eyepoppingly high. Ichiro's RBI totals, while meager, are huge for a leadoff hitter.

--His low walk and strikeout totals actually make sense for a leadoff hitter--since he's always putting balls in play, it increases his ability to move runners along (see above point). Examine his stats leading off innings vs. not and see if there's no difference.

--His arm is so strong and accurate that no-one attempts to stretch out outfield hits against him. He's a lock to win a Gold Glove this year--no mean feat for a RF.

--His speed on the basepaths alters defensive schemes and makes it harder for infielders to make plays--against the Angels earlier this year, he beat out an infield hit by two steps, something I've never seen in 17 years of obsessive baseball watching.

Basically, the case against him is that he doesn't hit home runs or draw a lot of walks--in effect, he's the anti-Bonds. Boo hoo.

--Captain Ron Voyage

(To reply, click here.)

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