Issue 1 is the presidential races. Issue 2 is the New York Senate race.
Most pundits think that John McCain, if not a front-runner, at least represents a real threat to George W. Bush. Paul Gigot (PBS’s NewsHour With Jim Lehrer) and Kate O’Beirne (CNN’s Capital Gang) think that McCain’s insurgency is different from the failed GOP underdogs of the past. Unlike, say, Pat Buchanan in 1996, McCain has enough money and organization in South Carolina to be comptetitive. Plus, he appeals to voters across the political spectrum and received 47 percent of the vote in New Hampshire (Buchanan won only 27 percent). Mara Liasson and Juan Williams (both of Fox News Sunday) argue that shifting demographics make South Carolina less conservative than four years ago. Tom Oliphant (NewsHour) and Bill Schneider (CNN’s Late Edition) note that McCain doesn’t rely solely on independents: A Time/CNN poll shows him commanding 37 percent of GOP voters in South Carolina, compared to Bush’s 50 percent–a low number for the establishment candidate. (The rest of McCain’s support comes from Democrats and independents.) McCain has “found a voice nobody else has, and it’s impossible to campaign against,” says Lawrence O’Donnell ( McLaughlin Group). Eleanor Clift (MG) calls him a “modern-day Teddy Roosevelt.” George Stephanopoulos (ABC’s This Week) thinks that if McCain wins by more than five points in South Carolina, the GOP establishment will start deserting Bush; Bob Novak (CG) thinks this will happen if McCain can win both South Carolina and Michigan.
Appearing on This Week, McCain gets the George W. treatment: Rather than interview the senator from ABC’s studios, Sam Donaldson flies to his house in Arizona. Countering the perception that the media has swooned for McCain wholesale, Donaldson gives the candidate a thorough grilling, pressing him on the Confederate flag issue and presenting evidence that one of his advisers, Richard Quinn, is racist. What obstacles does McCain face now? Tom Oliphant notes that the South Carolina primary falls on a Saturday, which may discourage the type of turnout McCain needs. Joe Klein (NBC’s Meet the Press) says that the California primary is rigged to favor the establishment candidate–McCain could actually win the popular vote but none of the state’s delegates to the GOP convention. Meanwhile, pundits are mystified by George W.’s recent campaign moves–receiving Dan Quayle’s endorsement, speaking at (the allegedly racist) Bob Jones University, and attacking McCain on, of all things, veterans issues.
On the Democratic side, everyone–including Sen. Robert Torricelli (CBS’s Face the Nation) and Bill Bradley (MTP) himself–agrees that if Bradley doesn’t win big on Super Tuesday, March 7, he’s toast. David Remnick (MTP) notes that if Bradley can’t win in the Northeast, where he was a basketball star, he’s burnt toast. Nearly everyone points to New Hampshire exit polls, which show Bradley’s inability to win over the Democratic base of unions, minorities, and the poor-to-low middle class. Some think Bradley is a victim of the expectations game, that McCain’s blowout and Bradley’s too-early peak in New Hampshire robbed him of momentum. Tim Russert (MTP) says that Gore’s victory was the narrowest in the history of the Democratic New Hampshire primary. Kate O’Beirne (CG) argues that Bradley actually did extremely well against a sitting vice president in prosperous times, and better than such insurgent candidates as Eugene McCarthy and George McGovern.
On the day of Hillary Clinton’s official announcement for the U.S. Senate, New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani appears on five–five!--Sunday morning shows. On each one, he makes the same pitch for his candidacy: 1) Unlike Hillary, I don’t follow my party’s line; I do what’s best for my constituents, not what’s best for the GOP; 2) Unlike Hillary, I will put the interests of New York above the exigencies of national politics; and 3) Unlike Hillary, I have a record of accomplishment in elective office. Asked what Senate committees he’d like to serve on, Giuliani says Foreign Affairs and Judiciary. He also refuses to promise to serve a full six-year term. Most pundits agree that Hillary’s new “biographical video”–in which she talks about her cooking abilities–is a forced attempt to humanize herself, and many note that she still doesn’t poll well among white women, her natural constituency. Some, however–like Juan Williams and Mara Liasson (both FNS)–think these problems are correctible. In Hillary’s favor, Adam Nagourney (TW) notes that Giuliani hasn’t been polling very well upstate, despite spending lots of money there.
Last Word
“I think he has to explain more thoroughly than he has what was happening at the Buddhist temple. I mean, if he didn’t know it was a fund-raiser, then he was spectacularly naive. If he did know it was a fund-raiser, then he really did something wrong. … Republicans are going to bash on that issue, and there needs to be a fuller explanation.”–Bill Bradley (MTP)
